大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][9][14]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,040 - 74,220 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the high - level supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The August import volume was 17,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,493 tons, a 0.91% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,832 tons, a 1.22% week - on - week increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 76,333 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily decrease, with a production profit of 50 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 80,138 yuan/ton, a 0.85% daily decrease, with a production loss of 5,811 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [9]. - Other Indicators: - Fundamentals: Neutral [9]. - Basis: On September 2, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 4,880 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal [9]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 43,336 tons, a 7.49% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 52,800 tons, a 2.51% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [9][11]. - Market Chart: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [9]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price and Basis: The futures closing prices of various contracts decreased, with a decline range of 2.99% - 3.89%. The basis of various contracts increased, with an increase range of 37.72% - 74.91%. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2.60% [17]. - Upstream Prices: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 1.22% to 887 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.54% to 1,920 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.08% to 77,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.12% to 75,200 yuan/ton [17]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate was 66.41%, unchanged from the previous period. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase [19]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 264,720 tons, a 4.96% increase. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase. The monthly production of ternary precursor was 73,440 tons, a 6.99% increase [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore has shown a certain downward trend, with the price of lithium spodumene (6%) at 887 dollars/ton, a 1.22% decrease [17]. - Production: The production of domestic lithium ore has changed, with the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showing different trends. The monthly production of lithium concentrate in August 2025 was 533,30 tons, a 19.01% increase, and the production of lithium mica was 13,700 tons, a 23.89% decrease [19]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate in August 2025 was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase, and the import volume from Australia was 427,301 tons, a 67.24% increase [19]. - Supply - demand Balance: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows a deficit in most months, with the balance in August 2025 at - 2,815 tons [27]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - Operating Rate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate has changed, with different trends for different raw material sources. The overall operating rate shows a certain fluctuation [30]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased, with the production in August 2025 at 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase [19]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 17,000 tons, and the export volume was 307 tons. The supply - demand balance in August 2025 was - 2,090 tons [36]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed, with different trends for causticization and smelting [38][40]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide has changed, with the production in August 2025 at 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease [19]. - Import and Export: The monthly export volume of lithium hydroxide in August 2025 was 4,000 tons, and the import volume was 350 tons. The supply - demand balance in August 2025 was - 6,061 tons [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica has decreased, and the profit situation is different. The production of lithium spodumene has a profit of 50 yuan/ton, while the production of lithium mica has a loss of 5,811 yuan/ton [9]. - Recycling: The cost of recycling to produce lithium carbonate is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm [9]. - Import and Other Processing: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate have all changed [48][50][53]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has changed, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 7.49% to 43,336 tons, and the downstream inventory increasing by 2.51% to 52,800 tons. The total inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease [9][11]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide has changed, with the downstream and smelter inventories showing different trends [55]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of lithium batteries has changed, with different trends for different types of batteries [59]. - Production and Sales: The monthly production and sales volume of lithium batteries have changed, with the monthly production of power batteries showing a certain increase, and the export volume also increasing [59]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursor has changed, with different trends for different series [64]. - Production and Supply - demand Balance: The monthly production of ternary precursor has increased, with the production in August 2025 at 73,440 tons, a 6.99% increase. The supply - demand balance in August 2025 was - 4,154 tons [19][67]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary material has changed, with different trends for different series [70]. - Production and Inventory: The monthly production of ternary material has changed, and the weekly inventory has also changed [70][72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has changed, with different trends for different types [74]. - Production and Export: The monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has increased, and the monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has also increased [74][77]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales and Export: The production, sales and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed, with the production and sales showing a certain increase, and the export volume also increasing [82]. - Penetration Rate and Other Indicators: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased, and the retail - wholesale ratio and inventory warning index have also changed [83][86].