Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may continue to rise due to potential limited inventory growth at the end of August and export data increases. In China, the long - term view on palm oil futures is bullish, but it needs to break through and hold above 9,500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil futures are under pressure in the short - term due to the expected soybean harvest in the US. In China, soybean oil inventory is increasing, but the spot basis may rise after fluctuations [1]. Sugar - The upward movement of raw sugar is difficult due to increased supply expectations, but the potential downward revision of Brazil's sugar production provides some support. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, with the 01 contract expected to fluctuate around 5,500 - 5,700 yuan/ton [3]. Cotton - The supply of new cotton is yet to be verified. Before the new cotton is on the market, the inventory is relatively tight. The demand has marginally improved since August, but the downstream improvement is not obvious. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. Eggs - In September, the number of newly - laid hens may decrease slightly. Egg demand may be lower than in previous years. Egg prices may rebound in the first half of September, but the upward space is limited, and a bearish view is maintained [7]. Corn - The short - term corn futures are in a rebound and consolidation phase due to the tight supply of old - crop corn, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. Consider shorting on rallies [10]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs has strengthened slightly. Short - term supply has tightened, which boosts the spot price, but the sustainable space is limited. It is recommended to operate with caution, with support levels at 13,500 for the 11 - contract and 13,800 for the 01 - contract [15]. Meal - The high expected yield and good condition of US soybeans suppress the market. The supply of domestic meal is currently loose, but the cost provides support. The domestic meal is expected to have limited downward space, and it is advisable to go long at the 3,000 - 3,050 range after stabilization [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Prices: On September 2, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,570 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,422 yuan, up 0.38%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,330 yuan, up 0.54%; the futures price of P2601 was 9,380 yuan, up 0.54%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,830 yuan, down 0.51%; the futures price of OI601 was 9,950 yuan, up 0.20% [1]. - Spreads: The soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 66, up 57.14%; the palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was - 42, up 22.22%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 184, up 42.64%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 760, down 7.04% [1]. Sugar - Futures Market: On September 2, the futures price of sugar 2601 was down 0.18%, and the futures price of sugar 2605 was down 0.18%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was down 1.22%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 0.70%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.73% [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning was 5,900 yuan, down 0.17%; the spot price in Kunming was 5,850 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning basis was unchanged, and the Kunming basis increased by 3.57% [3]. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 15.76% year - on - year. The national industrial inventory decreased by 10.44% year - on - year [3]. Cotton - Futures Market: On September 2, the futures price of cotton 2605 was up 0.21%, and the futures price of cotton 2601 was up 0.14%. The ICE US cotton main contract was down 0.72%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 1.35%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.99% [4]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,324 yuan, down 0.44%; the CC Index of 3128B was 15,412 yuan, down 0.43% [4]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 16.9% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory increased by 2.9% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 66.7% month - on - month [4]. Eggs - Futures and Spot: On September 2, the futures price of the egg 11 - contract was up 1.68%, and the futures price of the egg 10 - contract was up 1.30%. The egg - producing area price was 3.21 yuan/jin, up 0.18% [6]. - Related Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicks was 3.00 yuan/feather, down 6.25%; the price of culled hens was 4.83 yuan/jin, down 4.36%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.50, up 2.88%; the breeding profit was - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 20.84% [6]. Corn - Corn: On September 2, the futures price of corn 2511 was 2,200 yuan, up 0.32%. The Jinzhou Port FAS price was 2,280 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 80, down 8.05% [10]. - Corn Starch: The futures price of corn starch 2511 was up 0.20%. The Changchun spot price was 2,660 yuan, unchanged; the Weifang spot price was 2,900 yuan, unchanged [10]. Pigs - Futures: On September 2, the futures price of the pig 2511 - contract was 13,595 yuan, down 0.22%; the futures price of the pig 2601 - contract was 13,860 yuan, up 0.14%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2.75% [15]. - Spot: The spot price in Henan was 14,150 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,100 yuan, down 100 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 13,800 yuan, up 200 yuan [15]. - Related Indicators: The daily slaughter volume increased by 0.12%. The weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 5.04%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 2.23% [15]. Meal - Soybean Meal: On September 2, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,050 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3,050 yuan, down 0.13%. The basis was 0, up 100.00%. The Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 38, up 100.0% [17]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2,500 yuan, down 0.52%. The basis was 100, up 14.94% [17]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,980 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the soybean No.1 main contract was 3,970 yuan, up 0.13%. The basis was 10, down 33.33% [17].
《农产品》日报-20250903
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-03 03:21