建信期货钢材日评-20250903

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On September 2, some rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets saw price drops. Rebar prices in Changsha dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in some cities dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while in Shenyang, it rose by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - The daily KDJ indicators of rebar 2601 contract showed a split trend, with the J value rebounding, the K value nearly flat, and the D value continuing to decline. The daily KDJ indicators of hot-rolled coil 2601 contract continued to decline after a dead cross the previous day. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts have been expanding [8]. 1.2 Future Outlook - News: Recently, some northern steel mills started the first round of coke purchase price cuts, and iron ore spot prices also showed a weakening trend [9]. - Fundamentals: The production and demand of the five major steel products continued to rise slightly, while the steel mill inventory continued to decline slightly, but the social inventory reached a new high since early May. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and daily hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Since early August, steel mill profits have generally declined by 140 - 200 yuan/ton, which has a suppressing effect on raw material prices. Steel mill iron ore inventories have declined for two consecutive weeks, and the purchasing sentiment has turned flat. After the eighth round of coke spot price increase, there are rumors that Hebei steel mills plan to conduct the first round of coke price cuts on September 5. Mongolia will increase coal exports to China, causing coke and coking coal futures to turn weak again [10]. - Overall: Recently, the production restrictions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were not as effective as previously shown in the market. Constrained by the under - expected demand in the steel spot market and the significant narrowing of steel mill profits, the steel market in the early part of September will face pressure from weak demand and the loss of cost support. However, this situation is unlikely to continue after mid - September. There is hope for a long - term slow - bull market in the steel market from mid - September to November, similar to the domestic stock index slow - bull trend from April to August [11]. 2. Industry News - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states issued a statement on energy sustainable development on September 1, calling for deeper cooperation in the energy field [12]. - On September 2, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the logistics industry prosperity index for August, which expanded significantly. The business volume index and new order index continued to expand [12]. - Tianfeng Securities gave a "Buy" rating to China Shenhua, citing its integrated operation model, stable coal and power businesses, and high - return profit distribution plan [12]. - Five major traditional power generation companies achieved a total net profit of 24.267 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a new high since 2016 [13]. - According to CITIC Securities, the total net profit of sample coal companies decreased by about 32% year - on - year and 15% quarter - on - quarter in the first half of the year. However, the industry's supply - demand pattern may improve in the second half, and the coal price center may rise [13]. - The 62 - day railway summer transportation ended on August 31, with passenger and freight volumes reaching record highs [13]. - In July 2025, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 24.98 billion US dollars, with exports showing significant growth [13]. - Fenix Resources signed a mining rights agreement with Sinosteel Midwest Corporation [13]. - India's power generation increased by 4% in August, and the proportion of coal - fired power generation rose [13]. - Russia's Yakutia region plans to increase coal production to over 50 million tons in 2025 [13]. - In July 2025, global pig iron production decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 4.4% year - on - year [13]. - The EU is taking measures to ensure that Russian gas will not be mixed into its supply system after the 2027 ban [14]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including spot prices, social inventories, production, and capacity utilization rates of steel products, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [16][18][25]