Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report - Date: September 3, 2025 - Industry: Treasury Bond 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In August, there were no significant changes in the bond market's fundamentals and policies, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but incremental positive factors are still limited. The bond market has become gradually insensitive to the stock market since late August, and as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the stock market's suppression on the bond market may further ease. However, from a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019, mainly due to government bond issuance peaks and the intensification of broad - credit policies. This year, the supply - side disturbance is weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and it is still difficult for broad - monetary policies to be implemented. Overall, the suppression of the bond market may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient and wait for better allocation value [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance - The A - share market adjusted, but the bond market sentiment remained cautious. Treasury bond futures fluctuated downward and closed lower across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds changed within a narrow range, mostly within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.768%, down 0.05bp [8][9]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the money market tightened marginally. There were 4058 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2557 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1501 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index rose slightly, short - term money market rates mostly changed within a narrow range, the weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate fell about 0.8bp to 1.44%, medium - and long - term funds remained stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remained around 1.63% [10]. - Conclusion - The bond market's fundamentals and policies in August did not change significantly, and the stock - bond seesaw was the main reason for the bond market adjustment. In September, the factors suppressing the bond market may ease, but there are still limited incremental positive factors. The suppression of the stock market on the bond market may further ease, but from a calendar effect perspective, the bond market has performed poorly in September since 2019. This year, the supply - side disturbance is weaker than in previous years, but the risk lies in the possible further intensification of broad - credit policies, and broad - monetary policies are still difficult to implement. Overall, the bond market suppression may ease, but it still lacks a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - As of the end of July this year, the bond market custody balance reached 190.4 trillion yuan, breaking through the 190 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time, setting a new historical high, which is a significant sign of the in - depth development of China's financial market and releases three positive signals: continuous increase in the direct financing scale of the real economy, more diversified asset allocation of financial institutions, and further enrichment of residents' asset allocation methods [13]. - The Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans was officially implemented on September 1. Participating pilot banks and other institutions officially accepted subsidy application. Some bank executives were optimistic about the impact of the consumption credit subsidy policy during the interim results season, and credit card installment business is not within the scope of subsidy [13]. - Many banks announced that the commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai no longer distinguish between first - home and second - home loans. After the adjustment, the minimum interest rate for new first - home loans in Shanghai is 3.05%, and the minimum interest rate for new second - home loans is 3.09%. Second - home mortgage loans with an interest rate higher than 3.36% can be lowered to 3.36% [13]. - The inter - bank lending center and the Shanghai Clearing House optimized the clearing mechanism for general repurchase transactions in the inter - bank bond market. The scope of participants was expanded to legal entities of deposit - taking financial institutions, and the scope of eligible collateral bonds was expanded to include non - financial corporate debt financing instruments issued by state - owned enterprise - managed industrial companies and high - quality private enterprises, as well as bonds issued by high - quality international development institutions [14]. - With the central bank maintaining a relatively loose attitude towards liquidity, market institutions expect that with the acceleration of fiscal expenditures, liquidity in September is expected to remain reasonably abundant, and fluctuations may mainly occur during periods of concentrated government bond issuance, if the stock market strengthens and causes increased concerns in the bond market, and in the last week of the quarter [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 2, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - It also mentions the inter - term spreads of the main treasury bond futures contracts and the inter - variety spreads among 2 - year, 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts, as well as the trends of the main treasury bond futures contracts [16][20]. - Money Market - The report shows the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, as well as the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [30][34]. - Derivatives Market - The report presents the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36].
建信期货国债日报-20250903
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-03 03:21