建信期货铜期货日报-20250903

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main contract reached a maximum of 80,020. Due to the sharp decline of A - shares and the decrease of market risk preference, Shanghai copper tumbled in the late trading and closed down. The spot price rose by 260 to 80,160, and the premium dropped by 15 to 220. The increase in imported arrivals and high copper prices pressured the premium. However, upstream centralized production cuts are imminent, and the inventory pressure of holders is not large. The profit of spot imports expanded to 320, and the Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.08. The LME 0 - 3 contango remained at a high level. The opening of the import window will attract the transfer of LME copper inventory to China. The LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 158,775 tons. The overall inventory levels at home and abroad are not high. Coupled with the upcoming production cuts of domestic smelters and the peak season of downstream demand, the fundamental support has strengthened [10]. - Operation Suggestion: With the macro - data such as European and American manufacturing PMI and US non - farm payrolls data to be released this week, the macro - data disturbances may increase. But under the background of the upward fundamental trend, copper prices should be mainly bought on dips [10]. Industry News - Production Cut News: On September 1, Capstone Copper announced that due to the successive failures of two ball - mill drive motors at its Mantoverde sulfide mine operation site in Chile within a week, the mine will temporarily cut production. One ball - mill motor failed on August 24, and the second one failed six days later. The plant will operate at half - capacity by bypassing the plant. The company plans to mitigate the impact through the plant maintenance work scheduled for late September. The management of Capstone expects that the repair work will take about four weeks, during which the copper concentrate production will lose 3,000 - 4,000 tons. An investigation into the root cause of the problem has also been initiated [11]. - Mine Expansion News: On September 1, the government of British Columbia approved Imperial Metals' plan to deepen and expand the Springerpit mine pit of the Mount Polley copper - gold mine, which will extend the mining life of the mine by about 8 years. The mine planning adjustment includes three major directions: deepening the existing open - pit mine; expanding the rock dumping area; and isolating the waste that may produce acidic substances to the old "Cariboo Open - Pit" area when the mine is closed [11].