《能源化工》日报-20250903

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Report's Core View Polyolefin - In September, the polyolefin market shows a phased characteristic of "decreased supply and increased demand", with inventory being reduced and overall market pressure under control. It is recommended to continue holding the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is strong in the short - term. After the parade, there may be an increase in orders from other provinces, and some caustic soda plants may raise prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [4]. PVC - The PVC market continues to be in a situation of oversupply. Although it is the traditional demand peak season in September, demand remains sluggish. It is expected to continue weak and volatile [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The supply side supports buying, while the demand side is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent OPEC+ meetings. In the short - term, wait and see, use a positive arbitrage strategy, and look for opportunities to expand options after the volatility increases [7]. Methanol - The methanol supply is expected to increase, while the traditional downstream demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the restart of MTO devices at ports and the inventory digestion rhythm. The 01 contract can consider the possibility of a decline in imports due to gas restrictions in Iran [17]. Urea - The urea futures price rebounded slightly, driven by supply - side maintenance and Indian tender news. However, weak demand limits the upside space [21]. PX - PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance in September. PX11 can focus on the area around 6800 [25]. PTA - PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, and the absolute price is supported in the short - term. [26] Ethylene Glycol - In September, domestic ethylene glycol supply is high, imports are revised down, and port inventories are low. Consider going long EG2601 or selling put options EG2601 - P - 4300 [26]. Short - fiber - In September, short - fiber supply - demand is expected to improve, but the inventory reduction is limited. The price fluctuates mainly with raw materials [26]. Bottle Chip - In September, bottle chip manufacturers maintain a 20% production cut. Demand declines slightly, and the upside space is limited [26]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, demand support is weak, and the absolute price is under short - term pressure. However, the strong oil price restricts the downward space. For BZ2603, focus on the area around 5800 - 6000 [34]. Styrene - Short - term styrene supply is high, and the driver is weak. However, there is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the future, and the downward space is limited. Consider going long lightly below 7000 and focus on the support around 6900, and then mainly short on rebounds [34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin - Price and Spread: L2601, L2509, PP2601, PP2509 closing prices all decreased slightly. The basis of North China LL and the spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 changed [2]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 14.92%, and social inventory increased by 0.99%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 5.91%, and trader inventory decreased by 1.81% [2]. - Operating Rate: PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.72%. PP device operating rate increased by 2.6%, and powder operating rate increased by 4.1% [2]. Caustic Soda and PVC - Price and Export Profit: FOB price of caustic soda in East China remained unchanged, and export profit decreased. PVC's CFR Southeast Asia price decreased, and export profit increased [4]. - Operating Rate and Profit: The caustic soda industry operating rate and PVC total operating rate decreased. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide PVC and Northwest integrated PVC decreased [4]. - Demand: The operating rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, and PVC's pre - sales volume decreased [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China decreased, while that in Shandong increased. PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased [4]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC prices all rose. The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, etc. changed significantly [7]. - Refined Oil: The prices of some refined oil products and their spreads changed, and the cracking spreads of some refined oil products also changed [7]. Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased. The basis of Taicang and regional spreads changed [17]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased [17]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises decreased, while that of overseas enterprises increased. The operating rate of downstream MTO devices increased [17]. Urea - Price and Spread: The prices of some urea products and their spreads changed [21]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased, and factory and port inventories increased [21]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - PX: PX futures prices decreased, and spreads such as PX - crude oil and PX - naphtha decreased [24][25]. - PTA: PTA spot and futures prices changed slightly, and the processing fee increased [25]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price of ethylene glycol decreased, and the basis increased [25]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Price and Spread: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, etc. changed, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [32]. - Benzene and Styrene Price and Spread: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis and import profit changed [32]. - Downstream Cash Flow: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed [33]. - Inventory and Operating Rate: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. The operating rates of some industries in the industrial chain changed [34].