LPG早报-20250903

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG main contract oscillated weakly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakened and then strengthened to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread was -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread was 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume was 13207 lots (+320) [1]. - The 9 - month CP official price remained stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP monthly spreads oscillated, MB monthly spread strengthened, and the oil - gas ratio changed little. The internal - external spread oscillated, PG - CP reached 106, PG - FEI reached 85. FEI - CP reached 21.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window oscillated and closed [1]. - Fundamentally, port inventories decreased, refinery commercial volume increased by 2.47%, and refinery inventories increased but were overall controllable. PDH operating rate was 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II was under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarted at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase its load, and Hebei Haiwei plans to stop production. The alkylation operating rate was 48.42% (+0.74). The MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+0). The combustion off - season is approaching its end, but demand remains weak [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Data Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South | Propane CIF Japan | MB Propane Spot | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after Carbon Four | Shandong Alkylated Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/27 | 4610 | 4405 | 4540 | 568 | 538 | 70 | 516 | 4960 | 7820 | -62 | 97 | | 2025/08/28 | 4620 | 4476 | 4540 | 574 | 536 | 70 | 516 | 4970 | 7820 | -86 | 167 | | 2025/08/29 | 4620 | 4481 | 4540 | 580 | 541 | 69 | 515 | 4990 | 7820 | -133 | 170 | | 2025/09/01 | 4580 | 4486 | 4540 | 583 | 545 | - | 531 | 4900 | 7770 | -201 | 188 | | 2025/09/02 | 4540 | 4486 | 4560 | 590 | 554 | 72 | - | 4890 | 7790 | -297 | 119 | | Daily Change | -40 | 0 | 20 | 7 | 9 | - | - | -10 | 20 | -96 | -69 | - On Monday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4486. PG futures weakened, and the 10 - 11 spread was 84 (-3). The US - to - Far East arbitrage window was closed. FEI and CP oscillated, PP oscillated weakly, and the paper profit of PP made from FEI and CP strengthened slightly. The CP production cost was lower than that of FEI [1]. Weekly Data - The combustion off - season is approaching its end, but demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, showing an overall stable - to - rising trend [1]. - The PG main contract oscillated weakly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakened and then strengthened to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread was -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread was 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume was 13207 lots (+320), with changes in different companies' positions. The 9 - month CP official price remained stable, with propane and butane at 520/490 [1]. - FEI, CP monthly spreads oscillated, MB monthly spread strengthened, and the oil - gas ratio changed little. The internal - external spread oscillated, and the US - Asia arbitrage window oscillated and closed. Freight rates remained flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreased, but the auction fee remained high. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly [1]. - PDH spot profit changed little, and paper profit oscillated downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declined, and the MTBE gross profit decreased. Fundamentally, port inventories decreased, refinery commercial volume increased by 2.47%, and refinery inventories increased but were overall controllable. PDH operating rate was 73.02% (-2.64pct), alkylation operating rate was 48.42% (+0.74), and MTBE operating rate was 63.54% (+0) [1].