芳烃橡胶早报-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: TA unexpected maintenance increases, polyester开工 continues to rise and inventory is relatively healthy, so the load is expected to be maintained. The supply of raw material PX will gradually return, and the near - term supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to continue to improve. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [3]. - MEG: In the short term, due to the low arrival volume, the EG port inventory is expected to continue to decline. The pattern is good and the benefits are not low. In the long - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation with the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, but the valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [4]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: After the accumulation of finished product inventory at the polyester yarn end, the speed of increasing load may slow down. With the good spot benefits of staple fiber, the high - level operation of the start - up rate is expected, and the processing fees are expected to fluctuate [4]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: The national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high. The price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. - Styrene: No clear overall view is given in the data, mainly presenting price changes of related products. 3. Summaries by Product PTA - Price and Index Changes: From August 27 to September 2, the price of PTA internal - market spot decreased from 4835 to 4725, the PTA processing difference decreased from 264.0 to 245.0, and the TA basis decreased from - 15 to - 45 [3]. - Device Changes: Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton device restarted, and a 1.2 - million - ton device is planned for maintenance [3]. - Market Situation: After the near - term TA maintenance is implemented, the start - up rate decreases month - on - month, the polyester load remains basically stable, the inventory is significantly reduced, the basis weakens month - on - month, and the spot processing fee weakens [3]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From August 27 to September 2, the MEG external - market price decreased from 535 to 524, the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 474 to 405, and the MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) remained at - 609 [4]. - Device Changes: Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000 - ton device restarted, and Shaanxi Weihua's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [4]. - Market Situation: The near - term domestic oil - based load increases, the coal - based start - up rate slightly decreases, the overall load increases, the overseas unexpected maintenance increases, the port inventory continues to decline, the downstream stocking level increases, the basis strengthens month - on - month, and the benefit ratio remains stable [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From August 27 to September 2, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6680 to 6590, and the short - fiber profit increased from 4 to 41 [4]. - Device Changes: Xiamen Xinhongxiang's low - melting - point device restarted, and the start - up rate slightly increased to 92.1% [4]. - Market Situation: The start - up rate of the polyester yarn end remains stable, the raw material stocking decreases, the finished product inventory starts to accumulate, and the benefits are weak [4]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From August 27 to September 2, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased from 1810 to 1830, and the RU main contract price increased from 15760 to 15870 [4]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, the price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [4]. Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From August 27 to September 2, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 840, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased from 743 to 733, and the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased from 883 to 858 [7]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene remained at - 377, the domestic profit of EPS increased from 305 to 375, and the domestic profit of PS increased from - 25 to - 5 [7].