Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemical Team - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis Price Data - From August 27 to September 2, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the prices of江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚, 进口利润, 主力基差, 盘面MTO利润 showed various changes, with the日度变化 of西南折盘面 increasing by 5 and西北折盘面 decreasing by 2 [2] Core View - The current trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's still necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian products and unplanned maintenance [2] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Analysis Price Data - From August 27 to September 2, the prices of东北亚乙烯 remained stable, while the prices of华东LD increased by 10 and华东HD decreased by 20. The主力期货 decreased by 18, and the基差 increased by 20 [6] Core View - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The upstream two major oil companies and coal chemical industry are destocking, and the social inventory is flat. The downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09基差 is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe and the United States are stable, and Southeast Asia is also stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [6] Group 4: PP (Polypropylene) Analysis Price Data - From August 27 to September 2, the price of山东丙烯 increased by 30,华东PP increased by 30, and华北PP decreased by 15. The主力期货 decreased by 22 [8] Core View - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the middle - stream are destocking. In terms of valuation, the基差 is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and the markets in Europe and the United States are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The production scheduling of drawing materials is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] Group 5: PVC Analysis Price Data - From August 27 to September 2, the price of电石法 - 华东 increased by 20 [8] Core View - The基差 of PVC maintains at 01 - 240, and the factory - delivered基差 is - 440. The downstream start - up rate has partially increased seasonally, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal market sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB390. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [8]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250903
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-03 07:12