广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250903

Report Summary of Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The glass and soda ash markets continue to weaken, following the logic of fundamental oversupply. For soda ash, the overall demand has no growth expectation, and the market pattern remains bearish. For glass, the market negative feedback persists, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma. Short positions can be held for both [1]. Detailed Summary Glass - Prices and Spreads:华北报价1140元/吨、华东报价1200元/吨、华中报价1090元/吨、华南报价1240元/吨均无变化；玻璃2505合约1238元/吨，较前值跌36元/吨，跌幅2.83%；玻璃2509合约943元/吨，较前值跌53元/吨，跌幅5.32%；05基差较前值涨36，涨幅26.87% [1]. - Supply and Demand:浮法日熔量15.96万吨无变化，光伏日熔量89290吨无变化；深加工订单偏弱，lowe开工率持续偏低，玻璃刚需端有一定压力 [1]. Soda Ash - Prices and Spreads:华北报价1300元/吨、华东报价1250元/吨、华中报价1250元/吨、西北报价1000元/吨均无变化；纯碱2505合约1349元/吨，较前值跌23元/吨，跌幅1.68%；纯碱2509合约1154元/吨，较前值跌26元/吨，跌幅1.90%；05基差较前值涨23，涨幅31.94% [1]. - Supply and Demand:纯碱开工率82.47%，较8月22日降6.79%；纯碱周产量71.90万吨，较8月22日降5.2万吨，跌幅6.79%；二季度光伏抢装过后光伏玻璃产能增长趋于滞缓，浮法产能走平，后市供需仍有压力 [1]. Report Summary of Logs Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The log futures market is in a weak - balanced oscillation stage. With the expectation of marginal improvement in the fundamentals, lower - cost support, and low inventory, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 2601 contract at low prices [2]. Detailed Summary Prices and Spreads - Futures Prices: The 2511 contract closed at 810.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 8 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous day. The 2509 contract rose 21 yuan/cubic meter to 797.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 2.70% increase; the 2601 contract fell 5 yuan/cubic meter to 825.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0.60% decrease [2]. - Spot Prices: The prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price was 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, unchanged [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: The port shipment volume in July was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 1.51% from June. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32%. The total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 297 million cubic meters as of August 29, showing a continuous de - stocking trend [2]. - Demand: As of August 29, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.20 million cubic meters, remaining above 6 million cubic meters last week [2]. Report Summary of Natural Rubber Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The natural rubber market continues to de - stock, with strong fundamental positive drivers. It is expected to have upward space. The price range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and short at high prices if the raw material supply increases smoothly [3]. Detailed Summary Prices and Spreads - Spot Prices: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 50 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton, with a 0.33% increase; the price of Thai standard mixed rubber rose 50 yuan/ton to 14,850 yuan/ton, with a 0.34% increase [3]. - Futures Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread was - 940 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 2.59% increase; the 1 - 5 spread was - 100 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 17.65% decrease [3]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Seasonal climate disturbances affected the tapping in the main producing areas, overseas raw material prices continued to rise, and the arrival of overseas ships was low. The inventory continued to de - stock this week [3]. - Demand: At the end of the month, market agents received orders, and most other channel merchants had regular sales. The demand for semi - steel tire replacement was negatively affected by the approaching school - opening, and the full - steel tire market in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region was affected by vehicle restrictions [3]. Report Summary of Polysilicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The polysilicon market will mainly fluctuate at a high level. The lower limit of the price fluctuation range will rise to 47,000 yuan/ton, and the upper limit will be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider shorting with put options at high prices when the volatility is low. Attention should be paid to the constraints on energy consumption and green - electricity ratio to promote the exit of backward production capacity [4]. Detailed Summary Prices and Spreads - Spot Prices: The average price of N - type re - feeding material rose 2500 yuan/ton to 51,500 yuan/ton, with a 5.10% increase; the average price of N - type granular silicon rose 2500 yuan/ton to 48,500 yuan/ton, with a 5.43% increase [4]. - Futures Spreads: The main contract price was 51,875 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 0.78% decrease; the current - to - first - continuous spread increased by 100.81% [4]. Supply and Demand - Supply: The weekly polysilicon production was 3.10 million tons, up 6.53% from the previous week; the monthly production was 13.17 million tons, up 23.31% from the previous month [4]. - Demand: The weekly silicon wafer production was 13.31 GW, up 8.30% from the previous week; the monthly production was 56.04 GW, up 6.24% from the previous month [4]. Report Summary of Industrial Silicon Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The industrial silicon price fluctuates weakly. The cost will rise in the future, and there are signs of capacity clearance. The supply - demand relationship in August was in a tight balance. It is recommended to go long at low prices, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Detailed Summary Prices and Spreads - Spot Prices: The price of East China oxygen - fed S15530 industrial silicon rose 20 yuan/ton to 9100 yuan/ton, with a 0.55% increase; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9400 yuan/ton [5]. - Futures Spreads: The 2509 - 2510 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 50.00% decrease; the 2510 - 2511 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 33.33% decrease [5]. Supply and Demand - Supply: The national industrial silicon production in August was 38.57 million tons, up 14.01% from the previous month. There were news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down [5]. - Demand: The production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy all increased in August, maintaining a tight - balance supply - demand relationship [5].