瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250903

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Today's technical form shows a decrease in volume, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and build a bottom. It is recommended that if the price falls below 8,200 yuan later, one can consider mid - to long - term bottom - fishing to buy long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,490 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 279,742 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1,738 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 69,982 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,758 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,400 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is 40 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the Si main contract is 610 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 333,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.2 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, with no week - on - week change; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,908.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 70.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.536 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The export value of photovoltaic silicon wafers is 600 million US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 54.2%, and the export volume is 2.94 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value of photovoltaic cells is 1.73 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 31.1%, and the export volume is 44.4 GW, a year - on - year increase of 59.1%; the export value of photovoltaic modules is 11.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 29.3%, and the export volume is 120.5 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7% [2]. 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In the southwest region, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more obvious, and the resumption process of silicon plants is accelerating. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places has increased, and it is expected that the output in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week. In Xinjiang, some large factories maintain stable production, but the enthusiasm of small and medium - sized silicon plants to resume production is not high, and the overall output is relatively stable [2]. - Demand: - Organic silicon: The organic silicon market is rising, profits are increasing, and there is also an expectation of increased production in the organic silicon industry, but the driving effect on the demand for industrial silicon is negative [2]. - Polysilicon: The downstream polysilicon industry is expected to significantly increase production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. Polysilicon enterprises have raised prices strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy, and the enthusiasm for starting work has increased. However, the price increase in the downstream links is limited, and in the long run, the demand in the photovoltaic industry is expected to shrink, which may limit the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon [2]. - Aluminum alloy: The overall inventory continues to rise significantly. Although the price has increased, the operation of the aluminum alloy industry is stable, but the demand performance is average, and the driving effect on industrial silicon is limited [2].