Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, improved weather and continuous raw material supply pressure support a slight price increase. In Hainan, with better weather, tapping operations resume, and raw material supply shows a seasonal increase. Some processors' raw material replenishment enthusiasm increases due to improved profits and orders [2]. - Recently, Qingdao port's natural rubber inventory continues to decline, though the decline rate slows. The inflow increases while the outflow increase is moderate. Downstream tire enterprises' procurement is relatively mild, and they continue the on - demand procurement rhythm. Short - term Qingdao port inventory is expected to continue a slight decline [2]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably last week, but some had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, dragging down overall capacity utilization. All - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises had maintenance plans at the beginning of this month, which may still affect short - term capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 15650 - 16200 range, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 12520 - 13000 range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15885 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber is 12715 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 50 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3170 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 147050 lots (an increase of 3830 lots), and that of 20 - number rubber is 36890 lots (a decrease of 1963 lots). The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 33638 (a decrease of 1947), and that of 20 - number rubber is - 6787 (an increase of 451) [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 167760 tons (a decrease of 160 tons), and those of 20 - number rubber are 45664 tons (a decrease of 100 tons) [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14880 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14830 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12500 yuan/ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 12100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 735 yuan/ton (an increase of 35), the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 990 yuan/ton (an increase of 70), the price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13105 yuan/ton (an increase of 71), and the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 390 yuan/ton (an increase of 66) [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.98 Thai baht/kg, that of rubber sheets is 58.35 Thai baht/kg (a decrease of 0.23), that of glue is 55.6 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15), and that of cup rubber is 51.2 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15) [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 227.4 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.6), and that of STR20 is 35.8 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 2). The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 12.19 million tons (an increase of 0.1), and that of mixed rubber is 25.95 million tons (a decrease of 2.13) [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.84% (a decrease of 0.92), and that of semi - steel tires is 72.77% (a decrease of 0.36) [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.22 days (a decrease of 0.54), and those of semi - steel tires are 46.14 days (a decrease of 0.91). The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces (an increase of 13), and that of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces (an increase of 174) [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.8% (a decrease of 0.22), and the historical 40 - day volatility is 18.87% (an increase of 0.3) [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.61 (an increase of 0.49), and that of at - the - money put options is 22.6% (an increase of 0.46) [2]. Industry News - In the first week of September 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian main natural rubber producing areas increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; the same situation occurred in some southern hemisphere areas [2]. - As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons (a decrease of 0.6%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons (a decrease of 0.14%), and the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons (a decrease of 0.7%) [2]. - As of August 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97% (a decrease of 0.90 percentage points month - on - month and 8.73 percentage points year - on - year), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89% (a decrease of 0.08 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 5.10 percentage points year - on - year) [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250903
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-03 11:07