油脂油料产业日报-20250904

Report Summary 1. Core Views - Palm Oil: Internationally, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating at a high level, facing resistance at 4,500 ringgit. After a brief adjustment and stabilization, supported by overall bullish fundamentals, the futures may approach 4,500 ringgit. After effectively breaking through and holding above 4,500 ringgit, with potential bullish factors such as limited inventory growth at the end of August and continued export growth in September, there is a chance for an upward trend. Domestically, the Dalian palm oil futures are also in a high - level consolidation. After several unsuccessful attempts to break through 9,500 yuan, it is expected to strengthen further with the support of the rebound in Malaysian palm oil. After breaking through and stabilizing above 9,500 yuan, it may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil and could even hit new highs. A near - term weak and long - term strong view is maintained [3]. - Soybean Oil: The expected high yield of US soybeans is weighing on CBOT soybeans and soybean oil, affecting the domestic oil market. Currently, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but downstream consumption is increasing as traders stock up for the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of Dalian soybean oil is a narrow - range oscillation. The January contract will continue to oscillate around 8,300 yuan. After the adjustment, based on the rise of international vegetable oils and the start of domestic consumption, the price may rise to around 8,500 yuan [4]. - Bean Meal: In the spot market, as oil mills in North China and other regions fulfill contracts normally, trading is light at the beginning of the month, and traders' quotes are down 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The impact of this week's imported soybean auction on the spot market is limited. Traders tend to replenish stocks at low prices during the oscillation. Massive trading may not occur until the middle of the month. The short - term spot price will fluctuate between 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. 2. Price Information 2.1 Oil Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | 246 yuan/ton | - 4 | | P 5 - 9 | - 204 yuan/ton | - 8 | | P 9 - 1 | - 42 yuan/ton | 12 | | Y - P 01 | - 1,066 yuan/ton | - 30 | | Y - P 05 | - 1,108 yuan/ton | - 28 | | Y - P 09 | - 958 yuan/ton | - 18 | | Y 1 - 5 | 288 yuan/ton | - 6 | | Y 5 - 9 | - 354 yuan/ton | - 18 | | Y 9 - 1 | 66 yuan/ton | 24 | | OI 1 - 5 | 169 yuan/ton | 3 | | OI 5 - 9 | - 353 yuan/ton | - 58 | | OI 9 - 1 | 184 yuan/ton | 55 | | Y/M 01 | 2.7397 | 0.23% | | Y/M 05 | 2.8712 | 0.32% | | Y/M 09 | 2.8017 | 0.32% | | OI/RM 01 | 3.9064 | 0.16% | | OI/RM 05 | 4.0088 | 0.1% | | OI/RM 09 | 3.8974 | - 0.31% | [5] 2.2 Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Price | Daily Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | 9,368 yuan/ton | - 0.57% | | Palm Oil 05 | 9,148 yuan/ton | - 0.31% | | Palm Oil 09 | 9,346 yuan/ton | - 0.36% | | BMD Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,434 ringgit/ton | - 0.94% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | 9,300 yuan/ton | - 80 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | - 42 yuan/ton | 32 | | POGO | 492.819 dollars/ton | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil Spread | - 26.73 dollars/ton | - 12.5 | [7][8] 2.3 Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Price | Daily Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | 8,366 yuan/ton | 0.52% | | Soybean Oil 05 | 8,070 yuan/ton | 0.39% | | Soybean Oil 09 | 8,454 yuan/ton | 0.47% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 52.5 cents/pound | 0.77% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | 8,490 yuan/ton | 70 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | 64 yuan/ton | - 8 | | BOHO (Weekly) | 56.202 dollars/barrel | - 9.3588 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil Spread | - 750 yuan/ton | - 70 | [13] 2.4 Oilseed Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3,066 | 16 | 0.52% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2,821 | 11 | 0.39% | | Bean Meal 09 | 3,020 | 14 | 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,521 | 21 | 0.84% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,406 | 12 | 0.5% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,562 | 9 | 0.35% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,040 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1395 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [18] 2.5 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 196 | - 6 | | M09 - 01 | - 44 | 6 | | RM01 - 05 | 106 | - 1 | | RM05 - 09 | - 159 | - 25 | | RM09 - 01 | 53 | 26 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3,020 | 0 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 30 | 4 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2,508 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 8 | 5 | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 512 | 8 | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 550 | 9 | [19][21]