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LPG早报-20250904
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-04 01:19

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The burning season is gradually ending, but demand remains weak. The cheapest delivery location is in East China, where supply is expected to be tight, demand to improve, and import costs to rise, leading to an overall stable and upward trend [1]. - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4481. The basis first weakens and then strengthens to 70 (+59). The September - October spread is -721 (-212), and the October - November spread is 87 (+7) [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Price and Spread Changes - On September 3, 2025, the daily changes in prices were as follows: South China LPG -20, East China LPG 0, Shandong LPG +20, propane CFR South China +2, propane CIF Japan +7, MB propane spot 0, CP forecast contract price +2, Shandong alkylated oil +20, and paper import profit -38, with the main basis -15 [1]. - The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI, CP monthly spreads fluctuate, MB monthly spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The internal - external spread fluctuates, PG - CP reaches 106, PG - FEI reaches 85, FEI - CP reaches 21.5 (+4.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and closes [1]. - FEI - MOPJ expands to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly [1]. Inventory and Production - Port inventories are being depleted, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and refinery inventories increase but are generally controllable [1]. - PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64 pct), with Wanhua Phase II under maintenance and Quanzhou Guoheng restarting at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. Alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0) [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 13,207 lots (+320), with Qingdao Yunda -55, Wuzhongda -65, and Donghua +440 [1].