芳烃橡胶早报-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA: After the near - end TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load remained stable, inventory decreased, basis weakened, and spot processing fees declined. With increasing unexpected TA maintenance, rising polyester start - up rate, and healthy inventory, the near - end supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to opportunities of expanding processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [2]. - MEG: Near - end domestic oil - based production increased, coal - based start - up rate declined slightly, overall load rose, overseas unexpected maintenance increased, port inventory decreased, downstream stocking increased, and basis strengthened. In the short term, port inventory is expected to continue to decline, but in the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The valuation is greatly affected by the cost side, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [6]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The start - up rate increased slightly, sales decreased cyclically, and inventory remained stable. The start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished - product inventory increased. The short - term start - up rate is expected to remain high, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [6]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable with rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. - Styrene: The prices of related raw materials and products changed, and the domestic profit of styrene fluctuated [10]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Spread Changes: Crude oil price decreased by 1.5, naphtha increased by 4, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 3, PTA domestic spot decreased by 20, and PTA processing spread decreased by 7 [2]. - Device Changes: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device of Taihua restarted, and a 1.2 - million - ton device is planned for maintenance [2]. - Weekly View: After TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load was stable, inventory decreased, basis weakened, and spot processing fees declined. TA unexpected maintenance increased, polyester start - up continued to rise, and raw material PX supply gradually recovered. The near - end supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to improve [2]. MEG - Price and Profit Changes: Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 2, MEG inner - market price decreased by 33, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 33 [6]. - Device Changes: A 150,000 - ton MEG device of Xinjiang Tianying restarted, and a 300,000 - ton device of Shaanxi Weihua was under maintenance [6]. - Weekly View: Domestic oil - based production increased, coal - based start - up rate declined slightly, overall load rose, overseas unexpected maintenance increased, port inventory decreased, downstream stocking increased, and basis strengthened. In the short term, port inventory is expected to continue to decline, but in the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [6]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Profit Changes: The price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 15, short - fiber profit increased by 15, and pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 20 [6]. - Device Changes: None mentioned. - Weekly View: The start - up rate increased slightly, sales decreased cyclically, and inventory remained stable. The start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished - product inventory increased. The short - term start - up rate is expected to remain high, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [6]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: The price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber increased by 20, and the price of RU main contract increased by 125 [6]. - Key Indicators Changes: The spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 85, and the processing profit of Thai standard rubber remained unchanged [6]. - Daily View: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable with rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - Price Changes: Ethylene price remained unchanged, pure - benzene CFR China decreased by 14, and styrene CFR China decreased by 15 [10]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene decreased to - 431, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 110 [10].