白糖早报-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar is oscillating downward, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is following the weak trend. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the low - price imported sugar in the market has increased significantly, and the spot price has declined. The futures main contract 01 has fallen below 5600, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The report does not contain relevant content. 3.2 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 4.06 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5990, with a basis of 428 (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract's position is bearish, with a net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [6]. - Expected Factors: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price below 17 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import pressure [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus The report does not contain relevant content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecasts: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. Green Pool predicts a 2.7 - million - ton surplus, USDA predicts a 11.397 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow predicts a 7.8 - million - ton surplus, and Datagro predicts a 2.58 - million - ton surplus [35]. - China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost: The cost of imported raw sugar processed and taxed (50% tariff) has been decreasing. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined tax - included cost was 5600 - 5650 yuan per ton [44]. 3.5 Position Data The report does not contain relevant content.