沪锌期货早报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate and decline, closing with a small positive line. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions reduced, with the short positions decreasing more. Overall, it was a shrinking - volume fluctuation. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate and consolidate. Technically, the price closed above the short - term moving averages, strengthening the moving average support. Short - term indicators like KDJ rose, and the trend indicator also rose, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the dominance of short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 will fluctuate and consolidate [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Fundamental Information - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons. The basis was - 15, considered neutral. On September 3, LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons to 55,225 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,992 tons to 40,947 tons, also considered neutral. The main positions were net long, but long positions decreased. The LME inventory warrants continued to decrease, and SHFE warrants remained at a high level [2]. 3.2 Zinc Futures Market on September 3 - The total trading volume of zinc futures on the SHFE was 181,512 lots, with a trading value of 2.02425621 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 214,025 lots, a decrease of 3,014 lots compared to the previous day. Different delivery months had different price changes, such as the 2510 contract closing at 22,285 yuan, up 20 yuan from the previous settlement [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market on September 3 - Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was priced at 16,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; zinc ingots in Shanghai were 22,270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; galvanized sheets in China were 4,040 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; galvanized pipes in China were 4,459 yuan/ton, unchanged; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,790 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; zinc plates in Changsha were 27,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7,857 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 21 - September 1, 2025) - The total zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets increased from 117,400 tons on August 21 to 133,300 tons on September 1. Compared with August 25 and August 28, the inventory increased by 8,500 tons and 3,500 tons respectively [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on September 3 - The total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 40,947 tons, an increase of 1,992 tons. The increase was mainly in Tianjin, where the warehouse receipts of Shanggang Yunhe Tianjin increased by 1,992 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory on September 3 - The LME zinc inventory was 55,225 tons, a decrease of 375 tons. The registered warrants were 42,450 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 12,775 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 23.13% [7]. 3.7 National Zinc Concentrate Price on September 3 - Zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in various regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and others were priced between 16,760 - 16,960 yuan/ton, all up 80 yuan [8]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on September 3 - Zinc ingots of 0 grade from different manufacturers like Hunan Zhuzhou Zhuoying, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., were priced between 21,940 - 22,840 yuan/ton, all up 90 yuan [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the plan, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on September 3 - The processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 3,400 - 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 80 - 100 dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on September 3 - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2510 contract, Guotai Junan had the highest trading volume of 39,555 lots, up 3,019 lots. In the long - position ranking, CITIC Futures held 8,409 lots, up 403 lots. In the short - position ranking, CITIC Futures held 15,644 lots, down 850 lots [17].