大越期货油脂早报-20250904

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian canola in China has led to a rise in the canola sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [2][3][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil: - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and supply will rise in the subsequent production season. - Basis: Spot price is 8438, basis is 72, indicating spot premium over futures. - Inventory: As of August 22, commercial inventory was 118 tons, a 2 - ton increase from the previous period and an 11.7% year - on - year increase. - Market: Futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is upward - sloping. - Main Position: Long positions of the main contract increased. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8150 - 8550. [2] - Palm Oil: - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and supply will increase in the future. - Basis: Spot price is 9492, basis is 124, showing spot premium over futures. - Inventory: As of August 22, port inventory was 58 tons, a 1 - ton increase from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease. - Market: Futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is upward - sloping. - Main Position: Long positions of the main contract turned to short. - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9150 - 9550. [3] - Canola Oil: - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral, and supply will increase later. - Basis: Spot price is 9843, basis is 116, meaning spot premium over futures. - Inventory: As of August 22, commercial inventory was 56 tons, a 1 - ton increase from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase. - Market: Futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is upward - sloping. - Main Position: Short positions of the main contract increased. - Expectation: The canola oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Lido: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. - Empty: Oils and fats prices are at relatively high historical levels, and domestic inventories are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply - The report also presents data on the inventory of imported soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, palm oil, canola oil, rapeseed, and the total domestic inventory of oils and fats over the years from 2015 - 2025 through charts. It also shows the data of oil mill soybean crushing [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23]. Demand - The report provides data on the apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal from 2015 - 2025 through charts [13][15].