大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250904

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated September 4, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support and anti - involution policies as positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main influencing factors are cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, and the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has slightly increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. Other packaging films have seen increased demand due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (+23,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, showing a bullish trend [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films has recovered but is still weaker than in previous years. The industrial inventory is neutral [4] - Positive Factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies [6] - Negative Factors: Weak demand [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. New PP production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved as the peak season approaches. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6950 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [8] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 582,000 tons (+43,000 tons), showing a bearish trend [8] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [8] - Main Position: The net long position of the PP main contract has decreased but is still long, showing a bullish trend [8] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, downstream demand has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8] - Positive Factors: Cost support and anti - involution policies [9] - Negative Factors: Weak demand [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons [16] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons [18]