铁矿石早报（2025-9-4）-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be a crude steel production reduction policy, with trade war easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 817 with a basis of 40, and the spot price of Brazilian Blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 831 with a basis of 54, showing that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor [2]. - Port inventories are 14,388.02 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. - With the domestic demand decreasing and the plan of capacity reduction impacting the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production starts to decrease, supply arrival this month is lower, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories decrease, there will be a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade war eases, neutral [2]. - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 817, basis 40; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to futures price is 831, basis 54, spot premium to futures, bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,388.02 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, neutral [2]. - Disk: Price below 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average flat, bearish [2]. - Main Position: Net short position in the main iron ore contract, short positions increasing, bearish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand decreases, capacity reduction plan impacts the market, high - level fluctuation thinking [2]. 3.2. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories decrease [6]. - Import losses [6]. - Downstream steel prices rise, with strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. 3.3. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].