大越期货沪铜早报-20250904

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral to slightly bullish outlook. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and copper prices are expected to move in a range. The market is waiting for consumption guidance during the peak season in September. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing an improved business climate compared to the previous month, which is a neutral factor. [2] - Basis: The spot price is 80,520, with a basis of 410, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is neutral. [2] - Inventory: On September 3, copper inventories decreased by 200 to 158,575 tons, and the SHFE copper inventories decreased by 1,950 tons to 79,748 tons compared to the previous week, which is neutral. [2] - Market Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish. [2] - Main Position: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish. [2] - Expectation: Inventories are rising, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The market is waiting for consumption guidance during the peak season in September. Currently, the long - short contradiction is not prominent, and copper prices will move in a range. [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Influencing Factors: Domestic policy easing is a positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative factor. [3] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. [20] - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a surplus of 0.11 million tons. [22] Inventory - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level. [14] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined. [16]