大越期货玻璃早报-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals, with supply at a relatively low level but terminal demand remaining sluggish and inventory rebounding [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The glass production profit has declined, industry cold repair has slowed, and the start - up rate and production have dropped to historical lows. Downstream deep - processing orders are less than in previous years, and real - estate terminal demand is weak [2]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, with a basis of - 79 yuan for FG2601 [2]. - National float glass enterprise inventory is 62.566 billion weight boxes, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week, and it is above the 5 - year average [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - In summary, the glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factors: There is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Real - estate terminal demand is still weak, with deep - processing enterprise orders at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting original inventory. The market sentiment of "anti - involution" has faded [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level, but the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has rebounded. Therefore, the glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased by 0.09% to 1135 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 1.28% to - 79 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [11]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side: The glass production profit has declined [2]. - Supply Side: The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.49%, at a historical low. The daily melting capacity is 159,600 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history but showing signs of stabilization and recovery [21][23]. - Demand Side: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the orders of deep - processing enterprises are at a historical low [27]. - Inventory: National float glass enterprise inventory is 62.566 billion weight boxes, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week, and it is above the 5 - year average [2][42]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43].