大越期货纯碱早报-20250904

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. - The mismatch between supply and demand in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume declines, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,175 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,276 yuan/ton, the basis is -101 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5-year average; bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward; bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak overhaul period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with the industry output at a historical high; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 4. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,267 yuan/ton | 1,165 yuan/ton | -102 yuan | | Current Value | 1,276 yuan/ton | 1,175 yuan/ton | -101 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.71% | 0.86% | -0.98% | [6] 5. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is -48.10 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is -58 yuan/ton. The soda ash production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.47%, and the operating rate has declined seasonally [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 719,100 tons, including 383,200 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with new production capacities of 6.4 million tons in 2023, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and a planned new production capacity of 7.5 million tons in 2025 (with 1 million tons actually put into production) [22]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 97.80% [25]. - For downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate of 75.49% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [28][34]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [37]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [38].