PTA、MEG早报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak with differentiation. Polyester factories' bids increased. The mainstream spot basis today is at 01 - 51. The PTA device maintenance effect was less than expected, the spot market liquidity was okay, the spot basis weakened, and the price fluctuated following the cost side. Although the processing margin improved slightly from the low point, it remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - The spot price is 4700, the 01 - contract basis is - 32, and the futures price is at a premium, which is neutral. The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a 0.1 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. MEG - On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol (MEG) was consolidating at a low level, and the market negotiation was okay. The intraday MEG futures were weakly consolidating. The spot negotiation was traded at a premium of 86 - 92 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract merchants and suppliers participated in restocking, and the spot basis moderately strengthened at the end of the session. In terms of US dollars, the overseas MEG price was consolidating at a low level. The early - morning negotiation price for near - term shipments was around 524 - 525 US dollars/ton, and the afternoon negotiation price dropped to around 520 - 522 US dollars/ton. The 9 - end - of - September shipments were traded at around 519 - 523 US dollars/ton, and some financing merchants participated in inquiries [7]. - The spot price is 4434, the 01 - contract basis is 103, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish. The total inventory in East China is 40.63 tons, a 9.42 - ton decrease compared to the previous period, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The arrival volume in early September is still moderately low, and there is still some room for a moderate decline in ports in the short term. In terms of demand, it is expected that the average load in September can reach 91.5%. The rigid demand support is gradually improving. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the MEG futures have been under pressure. It is expected that the price of MEG will mainly consolidate within a range in the short term, with strong support at the bottom. Subsequent attention should be paid to device changes and polyester load changes [7][8]. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: In August, some PTA devices were scheduled for maintenance, improving supply - demand expectations. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has shown some expectations for demand recovery. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device had an unscheduled shutdown [11]. - Bearish factors: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found. 2. Daily Tips - No relevant content found. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content found. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has been increasing. Supply and demand have shown certain fluctuations. For example, in 2025, the production capacity increased from 9172 in September to 9472 in November. The supply - demand gap also changed accordingly, with a 1.6% gap in September 2025 and a - 22.1% gap in October [12]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of MEG have also changed. The supply - demand relationship has also been adjusted. For example, in 2025, the total supply in September was 234, and the supply - demand gap was 2 [13]. Price - Related Data - There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, and inventory. There are also data on PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, such as the TA - EG spot spread and p - xylene processing margin [15][18][22][23][29][32][39]. Inventory Analysis - There are data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [41][42][43][46]. Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - There are data on the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain [52][56]. Profit - Related Data - There are data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, and production margins of polyester fibers [61][62][65].