建信期货豆粕日报-20250904

Report Information - Report date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Report industry: Soybean meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Key Points 1. Market Review - Contract Performance: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3056, the opening price was 3044, the highest price was 3072, the lowest price was 3039, the closing price was 3066, with a gain of 10 and a gain - rate of 0.33%. The trading volume was 798340, the open interest was 2037475, and the change in open interest was - 10640 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3013, the opening price was 3003, the highest price was 3025, the lowest price was 3003, the closing price was 3020, with a gain of 7 and a gain - rate of 0.23%. The trading volume was 7748738, and the change in open interest was - 1163 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3028, the opening price was 3015, the highest price was 3044, the lowest price was 3009, the closing price was 3034, with a gain of 6 and a gain - rate of 0.20%. The trading volume was 55946, the open interest was 534307, and the change in open interest was 11836 [6]. - External Market and Influencing Factors: The US soybean futures contract in the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The recent correction of soybean meal was mainly due to the expectation of Sino - US trade consultations and the unexpectedly high previous US soybean good - to - excellent rate. As the US soybean harvest season approaches, the pressure on US farmers is increasing. China, as the largest buyer of US soybeans, has not purchased new - season US soybeans yet. The USDA's latest good - to - excellent rate this week was 65%, down from 69% the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the past five years, increasing the pressure of a bumper harvest [7]. 2. Core View - In the medium term, with the 23% tariff on imported US soybeans remaining unchanged, China may mainly import Brazilian soybeans in the fourth quarter to replace US soybeans, supplemented by some Argentine soybeans. There may still be a small import gap, which may be supplemented by state - reserve auctions. Due to the decreasing supply of Brazilian soybeans, the marginal price may rise. Considering the weather factors, there is no possibility of a significant weakening of the Brazilian FOB quotation in the fourth quarter. The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise steadily in the fourth quarter. With the受阻 import of Canadian rapeseed, the market should be treated as bullish after corrections [7]. 3. Industry News - USDA Crop Growth Report: As of the week ending August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68% and down from 69% the previous week, the same as the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 94%, up from 89% the previous week, higher than 93% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average. The defoliation rate was 11%, up from 4% the previous week, slightly lower than 12% in the same period last year and slightly higher than the five - year average of 10% [10]. - USDA Export Inspection Report: As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, in line with expectations (the previous market forecast was 200,000 - 500,000 tons). The previous week's revised volume was 393,189 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 29, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 502,934 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 49,763,188 tons, compared with 44,717,223 tons in the same period of the previous year [9][10][11]. - USDA Monthly Crushing: The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 6.14 million short tons (204.7 million bushels), higher than 5.91 million short tons (197 million bushels) in June and 5.8 million short tons (193 million bushels) in July 2024 [11]. 4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [15][19][14]