建信期货多晶硅日报-20250904
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-04 02:43

Report Date - The report date is September 4, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a cautiously bullish and volatile trend. The spot price has risen significantly, leading the industry out of loss and involution. However, the policy side lacks the logic to stimulate further price increases, mainly relying on the implementation and matching of policy expectations. The improvement of the supply - demand relationship is slow, and breaking through the high - level resistance requires the implementation of more than expected policies [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The price of the polysilicon main contract continued high - level volatility. The closing price of PS2511 was 52,160 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 362,759 lots, and the open interest was 149,210 lots, with a net increase of 3,355 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock is 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 49,000 yuan/ton, up 2.30% week - on - week. In September, production will be restricted, which will support the upward movement of the spot price center. The monthly production is expected to be flat compared with the previous month at 145,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.8GW, higher than the expected production of solar cells. The downward pressure on terminal demand will gradually be transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity in July was only 11GW [4] 2. Market News - On September 3, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6GW, and the new installed capacity from January to July was 223.25GW. The new installed capacity in July was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]