碳酸锂期货月报：政策利好出尽，供需主导盘面-20250904

1. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate in August improved to a tight balance, with the supply - demand gap continuously narrowing. It is expected to continue improving throughout the year, but the improvement will be limited. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of upstream supply is likely to remain stable, downstream demand still has some growth potential, and the cost side, especially the ore end, has little room for further decline. After recent sharp price fluctuations, the futures price is expected to stabilize, remaining above previous highs and mainly adjusting through wide - range oscillations [4][59]. 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review and Logic Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Trend Review - The main lithium carbonate contract in August 2025 showed a bullish - then - bearish trend, opening at 69,080 yuan/ton on August 1st and closing at 77,180 yuan/ton on August 29th, with a monthly increase of 11.73%. High supply led to high inventory, and the subsequent production increase of downstream cathode material factories was lower than expected. The cost of the ore end was also supported. The import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased, and the mica mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi were about to expire, which briefly drove the market up. Without obvious signs of demand recovery, the futures price may have some downward space. The basis showed a clear trend. After the shutdown of the Xianxiaowo Mine on August 9th, the basis weakened rapidly, indicating that the futures price rose much faster than the spot price. From the 20th, as the sentiment of funds to boost prices weakened, the spot price led the futures price again. If there is no supply - side disruption and demand remains weak, the spot price is expected to have a slight premium over the futures price, and the basis fluctuation range will narrow [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - Production: - Ore End: In August, the production of domestic spodumene and lepidolite still faced cost - profit inversion, but their production trends diverged. Lepidolite production was affected by the mining license issue in Jiangxi, with the total output in August being 13,980 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.74%. Spodumene production was 6,670 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. The import of spodumene from Australia increased significantly in August, with an import volume of 576,138 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.73%. The price of spodumene and lepidolite continued to rise steadily. Lithium ore was in a state of slight supply shortage in August, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is expected that the supply - demand gap will continue to narrow in the second half of the year, and there is limited downward space for prices under the support of ore costs [7]. - Lithium Compound End: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the dependence on Chilean imports declined. In August, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 8,5240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The production was mainly battery - grade. The output from spodumene and lepidolite increased steadily, the output from salt - lake lithium extraction increased slightly due to warmer weather, and the output from waste lithium - battery recycling decreased significantly due to cost - profit inversion. The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate shifted from slight oversupply to slight shortage in August. It is expected that demand will recover in the second half of the year, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight - balance state. The production capacity of lithium hydroxide continued to increase, but the downstream demand was weak. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was obvious, and its price is expected to face downward pressure in the short term [13][14]. - Cost - Profit: The overall cost level of the ore end rebounded after reaching the bottom. The cost of enterprises producing lithium compounds from externally purchased spodumene was still high, mainly due to the ore cost. By the end of August, the cost of spodumene dropped to around 76,000 yuan/ton, and the processing cost rebounded slightly, with corresponding enterprises making small profits. The processing cost of lepidolite also rebounded, and the cost in late June recovered to around 80,000 yuan/ton, with corresponding enterprises in a continuous loss state. Salt - lake lithium extraction could still make a profit due to its low cost. The cost of waste - battery recycling remained stable, and the loss situation did not improve. Except for the salt - lake end, other production methods still had cost - profit inversion [24]. - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts in the exchange recovered rapidly after being cancelled at the end of July, and the current inventory is around 30,000 tons. Affected by the sharp price fluctuations of futures and spot in August, the downstream's willingness to take delivery was low, and the downstream inventory decreased. The upstream production enterprises also adjusted their production, and the overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in August. For lithium hydroxide, the inventory of upstream and downstream decreased in August due to the reduction in supply, but the de - stocking rate is expected to remain low, and the price increase space may be limited [36]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - Power/Energy - Storage Batteries: The production of power batteries remained high and the price was stable under the background of high upstream supply and declining costs. The loading demand decreased in August due to weak terminal demand, and the support for upstream demand continued to weaken. The inventory of ternary power batteries increased slightly, and that of lithium - iron - phosphate power batteries remained basically unchanged. The inventory - sales ratio of power batteries showed a divergent trend in August. It is expected that the inventory de - stocking rate may decline to some extent in the second half of the year. The winning bid price and order volume of energy - storage batteries decreased in August, and the inventory - sales ratio was relatively low, with inventory pressure slightly higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected that demand will suppress the futures price in the short term [40]. - Ternary Precursors/Materials: In August, the prices and costs of ternary precursors and ternary materials rebounded, and the overall loss situation improved slightly but still remained in a loss state. As production increased slightly, the situation of supply surplus intensified. The 5 - series, 6 - series, and 8 - series materials still dominated. The supply - demand situation of ternary precursors improved limitedly under the background of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory de - stocking amplitude was restricted [41]. - Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate: Since June 2024, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate has continued to increase, but the operating rate has been low due to weak downstream demand. The production has been at a high level, and the prices of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate have continued to weaken. The loss amplitude improved in August with the rebound of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices. The inventory remained stable, but considering the continuous high - level production, the subsequent production scheduling will still face pressure, and prices may be suppressed [50]. - New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales: In July 2025, the production of new energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%, higher than the historical average. The sales volume was 1,262,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%, higher than the historical average. The export volume was 22,500 units, a month - on - month increase of 9.76%, higher than the historical average. The dealer inventory coefficient was 1.35, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0699, lower than the historical average, and the terminal inventory decreased, which supported the demand for lithium carbonate. The dealer inventory warning coefficient was 51.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.3, lower than the historical average. It is expected that demand will strengthen in August and September, and the inventory will decrease. Overall, the production of new energy vehicles decreased in July, demand remained stable, and the dealer inventory increased. It is expected that the inventory will increase again in August. The weak consumption growth of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may have limited impact on the upstream power battery and lithium carbonate sectors [54]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - Supply Aspect: The cost - profit inversion situation of the ore end has improved, while the continuous cost - profit inversion of the recycling end limits the production increase. It is expected to support the futures price in the short term [57]. - Demand Aspect: In August, the production scheduling of power batteries remained stable, but the growth was limited due to lower - than - expected downstream demand. The demand for new energy vehicles recovered weakly, and the increasing dealer inventory pressure limited the support for the futures price. The growth of energy - storage equipment was significant, but its inventory - sales ratio was in a state of decline, and it is expected to have limited support for downstream demand [58]. - Summary: The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate improved to a tight balance in August, and the supply - demand gap continued to narrow. It is expected to continue improving throughout the year, but the improvement will be limited. In the second half of the year, the upstream supply growth is likely to remain stable, downstream demand still has some growth potential, and the cost side, especially the ore end, has little room for further decline. After recent sharp price fluctuations, the futures price is expected to stabilize, remaining above previous highs and mainly adjusting through wide - range oscillations [59].