大越期货PVC期货早报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the recovery of domestic demand is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4847 - 4909. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics [8][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Base Spread: On September 3, 2025, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 118 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - Inventory: The factory inventory was 31.2148 tons, a 2.00% increase from the previous period. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 24.2148 tons, a 3.07% increase, and the ethylene factory inventory was 7 tons, a 1.54% decrease. The social inventory was 52.19 tons, a 2.73% increase. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a 1.96% increase, which is bearish [10]. - Market Chart: MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20, which is bearish [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and short positions increased, which is bearish [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply Side: In July 2025, the PVC output was 2.00461 million tons, a 0.67% month - on - month increase. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 76.02%, a 0.02 percentage - point decrease. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 330,135 tons, a 0.57% month - on - month increase, and the output of ethylene enterprises was 125,160 tons, an 8.34% month - on - month decrease. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [6]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.6%, a 0.10 percentage - point decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 42.6%, a 0.95 percentage - point increase, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous period, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 69.26%, an 8.27 percentage - point decrease, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. The current demand may remain weak [6]. - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 79.20% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 6.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2697.05 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - Expectation: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method has weakened, and the overall cost has decreased. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and it is expected that production scheduling will increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain weak. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4847 - 4909 [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the price, spread, inventory, production, and other data of PVC contracts, including different regions, varieties, and time periods, such as the price of East China SG - 5, the basis of different contracts, factory inventory, social inventory, production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, and capacity utilization rate [16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of PVC basis, spot prices in East China, and the closing prices of the main contract through charts, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [19]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical trends of different contract spreads (such as 1 - 9 spread, 5 - 9 spread) through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between different contracts [25]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Products - Lancoke: The report presents the historical trends of Lancoke medium - grade material prices, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output through charts, which helps to analyze the cost and supply situation of the calcium carbide method [28]. - Calcium Carbide: The report presents the historical trends of Shaanxi calcium carbide mainstream prices, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and output through charts, which helps to analyze the cost and supply situation of the calcium carbide method [31]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: The report presents the historical trends of liquid chlorine prices, output, raw salt prices, and monthly output through charts, which helps to analyze the cost and supply situation of the calcium carbide method [33]. - Caustic Soda: The report presents the historical trends of 32% caustic soda prices in Shandong, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly output, and maintenance volume of sample enterprises through charts, which helps to analyze the cost and supply situation of the calcium carbide method [35]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report presents the historical trends of calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rates, production profits, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly output of sample enterprises through charts, which helps to analyze the supply situation of PVC [39][40]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report presents the historical trends of PVC daily trading volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products (such as profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) through charts, which helps to analyze the demand situation of PVC [42][44][46]. - The report also presents the historical trends of real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year through charts, which helps to analyze the macro - demand situation affecting PVC [52][55]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse inventory, ethylene factory warehouse inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of PVC [57]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - The report presents the historical trends of vinyl chloride imports, dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, ethylene method FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) through charts, which helps to analyze the import - export and cost - profit situation of the ethylene method [59]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and imports, which helps to analyze the overall supply - demand balance situation of PVC [62].