大越期货菜粕早报-20250904

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2480 and 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short - term, it will enter a pattern of strong oscillation, affected by the possible variables in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. - The current market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 2 Recent Highlights - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, with good expectations on the demand side [11]. - China has preliminarily ruled that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established and has started to levy an import deposit of 75.8%. The final ruling result is still variable [11]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the variable final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4 Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: Rapeseed meal futures have declined, while the spot price has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has oscillated weakly [17][19]. - Supply - related Data: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseeds has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory has decreased slightly. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume has decreased slightly [22][24][26]. - Aquaculture Data: Aquatic fish prices have fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 5 Position Data No relevant content provided. ✸ Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal has rebounded, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical oscillations. The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short - term, and low inventory supports the market, but demand will enter the off - season after the National Day, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still variable [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2580, with a basis of 59, indicating a premium over the futures price [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 21,000 tons, a 17.65% week - on - week decrease from 25,500 tons last week and a 25% year - on - year decrease from 28,000 tons in the same period last year [9]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [9]. - Main Position: Net short positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed out [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal may rise and then fall in the short - term due to the variable final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, entering a pattern of strong oscillation [9].