大越期货甲醇早报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level has no positive factors, and the supply - demand contradiction of methanol is becoming prominent. It is expected that the domestic methanol price may face downward pressure this week. Inland methanol prices are likely to decline in the short - term due to increased supply and reduced demand. Port methanol is expected to see continuous inventory accumulation, but the reverse flow of port goods to the inland may increase. The short - term driving force remains downward under the weak reality, and the price is expected to fluctuate. MA2601 is expected to oscillate between 2340 - 2400 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The macro - level has no positive factors, and the supply - demand contradiction of methanol is prominent. The domestic methanol price may decline under pressure this week. Inland: recent maintenance devices are few, multiple methanol devices restarted in late August, supply has increased significantly, while demand from Ningxia CTO plants has decreased, and large - scale events in early September have affected demand in the North China region. The reverse flow of low - priced port goods also suppresses the inland market. Port: Iranian shipments are concentrated, and inventory is expected to accumulate; as prices fall, the reverse flow of port goods to the inland may increase; the Indian price is rising, and attention should be paid to the re - export window. The macro - level is cooling, and the fundamentals are weak, with the short - term driving force downward. The price of MA2601 is expected to oscillate between 2340 - 2400 [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Liduo Factors: Some devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); Iranian methanol production has decreased; port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6]. - Likong Factors: Some previously shut - down devices have restarted (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); port arrivals are expected to be concentrated in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season; MTBE production has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 117, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The futures closing price is 2382 yuan/ton. The price of ring - Bohai thermal coal is 676 yuan/ton, CFR China main port is 259 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2282 yuan/ton [5][8]. - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 1066,000 tons, a significant increase of 131,800 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 84,400 tons to 691,300 tons [5]. - Market Structure: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. - Production Profit: Coal - based methanol profit is 340 yuan/ton, natural gas - based methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - based methanol profit is 496 yuan/ton [19]. - Downstream Products: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged this week. The production profit of formaldehyde is - 185 yuan/ton, and the load is 25.42%; the production profit of dimethyl ether is 376 yuan/ton, and the load is 8.88%; the production profit of acetic acid is 61 yuan/ton, and the load is 82.42%; the production profit of MTO is - 510 yuan/ton, and the load is 79.84% [31][35][38][42][47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Devices: Multiple domestic methanol production devices are in maintenance, shutdown, or reduced - load operation, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. [57]. - Foreign Devices: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally, but some have low operating rates [58]. - Olefin Devices: Some domestic olefin devices are in maintenance, while others are operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices are under maintenance, and Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin's devices are operating stably [59].