建信期货工业硅日报-20250904

Group 1: Market Performance and Outlook - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%. The trading volume was 275,841 lots, and the open interest was 279,742 lots, with a net decrease of 1,738 lots [4]. - Sichuan 553 price was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 price was 8,550 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 price was 9,150 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 price was 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. - After the high - price adjustment, the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals did not improve significantly. The supply - side increase was obvious, with the weekly output reaching 90,000 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of about 390,000 tons. On the demand side, polysilicon production reduction and sales control in September led to a decrease in monthly output from 145,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons. The total volume of organic silicon, alloy, and exports remained stable. The industry was in a supply - demand imbalance again without inventory - reduction drivers. Policy implementation did not focus on the industrial silicon industry, and the fundamentals had insufficient driving force, so the futures market fluctuated widely [4]. Group 2: Market News - On September 4th, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,348 lots, a net increase of 319 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, the export of metallic silicon was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total export of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6 GW, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. The single - month new installed capacity in July was 11 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].