Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The copper price broke through and rose this week. With supply disturbances and expected decline in electrolytic copper production in September, there is obvious support at the bottom, and potential squeezing risks should be noted [1]. - For aluminum, supply slightly increased, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in September with inventory depletion. Attention should be paid to reverse spreads between distant months and inside - outside in the low - inventory pattern [1]. - The zinc price fluctuated narrowly this week. In the short term, it is expected to rebound and is recommended for observation; in the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for short - side allocation. Inside - outside positive spreads can be held, and opportunities for positive spreads between months can be noted [5][6]. - The nickel market has high - level pure nickel production, weak overall demand, and stable premiums. With the situation in Indonesia to be continuously monitored, the short - term fundamental situation is average [7]. - The stainless - steel market has weak fundamentals with partial passive production cuts by steel mills, mainly rigid demand, and stable inventory in Xifu areas. Attention should be paid to the development of the situation in Indonesia [10]. - The lead price oscillated this week. Supply is expected to be tight, demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a low - level oscillation next week [12]. - The tin price oscillated upward this week. The domestic market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to observe in the short term and hold at low prices near the cost line in the medium - to - long - term [15]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption rhythm of Hesheng. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom due to over - capacity [18]. - The lithium carbonate price declined this week. The core contradiction is the excess supply in the medium - to - long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances at the resource end. With the arrival of the peak season, the price has strong downward support [20][21]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Market Data: From August 28 to September 3, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 25, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 39, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 [1]. - Fundamentals: Market orders remained resilient, and the copper rod operating rate showed no obvious distinction between peak and off - peak seasons. The rumor of tax rebate cancellation in some areas led to a tight waste - refined price difference, and the production of anode copper may be affected in September and October. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly [1]. Aluminum - Price and Market Data: From August 28 to September 3, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots all increased by 20, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 12. The LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - Fundamentals: Supply slightly increased, and demand was in the seasonal off - peak season in August with a slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The inventory is expected to deplete in September [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: From August 28 to September 3, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 375 [5]. - Fundamentals: The domestic TC of zinc ore has limited upward movement, and the import TC increased. The smelting increment in August was further realized. Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has certain resilience, and overseas demand has some resistance in production due to processing fees [5]. Nickel - Price and Market Data: From August 28 to September 3, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and the LME inventory increased by 3996 [6][7]. - Fundamentals: Pure nickel production remained at a high level, demand was weak, and premiums were stable. The situation in Indonesia needs continuous monitoring [7]. Stainless Steel - Price and Market Data: From August 28 to September 3, the 304 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 430 cold - rolled coil price increased by 100 [10]. - Fundamentals: Steel mills had partial passive production cuts, demand was mainly rigid, and inventory in Xifu areas remained stable [10]. Lead - Price and Market Data: From August 28 to September 3, the spot premium increased by 5, and the LME inventory decreased by 3475 [12]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to be tight, demand has a slight improvement, but inventory is at a high level. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a low - level oscillation next week [12]. Tin - Price and Market Data: From August 28 to September 3, the spot import profit increased by 874.40, and the LME inventory increased by 20 [15]. - Fundamentals: The domestic market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and overseas production resumption difficulties, and demand has a peak - season expectation but also a decline in photovoltaic growth [15]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Market Data: From August 28 to September 3, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 20, and the 553 East China basis decreased by 20 [18]. - Fundamentals: The resumption of production in Xinjiang is progressing steadily, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on the resumption rhythm of Hesheng, and there is over - capacity in the medium - to - long - term [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Market Data: From August 28 to September 3, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2111 [20]. - Fundamentals: The price declined this week due to multiple factors. The core contradiction is the excess supply in the medium - to - long - term and the short - term compliance disturbances at the resource end. With the arrival of the peak season, the price has strong downward support [20][21].
永安期货有色早报-20250904
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-04 03:11