《农产品》日报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: The fundamentals are generally bullish, with limited inventory growth at the end of August and potential export growth in September. Malaysian crude palm oil futures may rise, and domestic palm oil futures may also strengthen, potentially breaking new highs if they effectively break through and hold above 9,500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: In the US, reduced industrial usage has less of a drag on the market, but weak demand prevents price increases. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, and with the postponement of Mid - Autumn Festival备货, soybean oil basis quotes will have limited fluctuations [1]. 2.2. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn is in the new - old crop transition period. The old - crop inventory is tight but trading is inactive. The market expects a new - crop increase and lower planting costs. As the new - crop harvest approaches, supply will increase, pressuring prices. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. The short - term market will be volatile, and the medium - term trend is bearish [2]. 2.3. Pork - The supply of pigs for slaughter has recovered, causing the spot price to decline again. The supply - demand contradiction is not severe, and the price has limited room to fall further. Demand is slowly rising, but it's uncertain if it can absorb the supply. There may be a wave of concentrated slaughter before the double festivals. Short - term supply pressure is limited, and investors are advised to operate cautiously, paying attention to support levels at 13,500 for the November contract and 13,800 for the January contract [5]. 2.4. Meal - The US soybean market is bearish due to high yield expectations, high excellent - good rates, and falling crude oil prices. Brazil's soybean prices have support. In China, concerns about future supply have eased, and spot supply is loose. However, cost support is strong, and the decline in domestic meal prices is limited. In the fourth quarter, soybean supply will not be abundant, and cost support for meal is expected to remain strong. Investors can go long after the market stabilizes [8]. 2.5. Sugar - The expected increase in supply makes it difficult for raw sugar to rise, but there is a risk of a downward revision in Brazil's sugar production, which provides some support. Raw sugar is expected to trade in the 15 - 17 cents per pound range in the short term. The spot market's trading has slowed, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a narrow range between 5,500 - 5,700 yuan for the January contract [11]. 2.6. Cotton - The situation of new - cotton procurement is yet to be verified. Before the new - cotton harvest, inventory is relatively tight. Demand has improved marginally since August, but the downstream market has not improved significantly. The market is watching for seasonal orders in September, which will support cotton prices. Cotton prices are expected to remain in a high - level range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan per ton [12]. 2.7. Eggs - In September, the number of newly - laid hens may decrease slightly compared to August. Demand is supported by the Mid - Autumn Festival at the beginning of September but will weaken as the festival approaches and fall rapidly after the festival. Egg prices may rebound in early September, but the upside is limited, and a bearish outlook is maintained [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 3 was 8,640 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.82%) from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8,454 yuan, up 32 yuan (0.38%). The basis was 186 yuan, up 38 yuan (25.68%). The warehouse receipt decreased by 700 to 15,060 [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong on September 3 was 9,400 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.75%). The futures price of P2601 was 9,346 yuan, down 34 yuan (- 0.36%). The basis was 54 yuan, up 104 yuan (208.00%). The import cost was 9,701.1 yuan, up 4.4 yuan (0.05%), and the import profit was - 355 yuan, down 38 yuan (- 12.13%) [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 3 was 9,870 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.41%). The futures price of OI601 was 9,900 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.50%). The basis was - 30 yuan, up 90 yuan (75.00%) [1]. 3.2. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: On September 3, the price of the 2511 contract was 2,193 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 0.32%). The Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2,290 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.44%). The basis was 97 yuan, up 17 yuan (21.25%). The 11 - 3 spread was - 2 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 200.00%) [2]. - Corn starch: The price of the 2511 contract was 2,487 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 0.72%). The Changchun spot price was 2,660 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 173 yuan, up 18 yuan (11.61%) [2]. 3.3. Pork - Futures: On September 3, the price of the 2511 contract was 13,550 yuan, down 45 yuan (- 0.33%); the 2601 contract was 13,915 yuan, up 55 yuan (0.40%). The 11 - 1 spread was - 365 yuan, down 100 yuan (- 37.74%) [5]. - Spot: The Henan price was 14,090 yuan, down 60 yuan; the Shandong price was 13,970 yuan, down 130 yuan; the Sichuan price was 13,800 yuan, unchanged; the Liaoning price was 13,590 yuan, down 60 yuan; the Guangdong price was 15,890 yuan, unchanged; the Hunan price was 13,790 yuan, down 70 yuan; the Hebei price was 13,830 yuan, down 170 yuan [5]. 3.4. Meal - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,050 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3,066 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.52%). The basis was - 16 yuan, down 16 yuan. The import profit for US Gulf shipments was 20 yuan, and for Brazilian October shipments, it was 52 yuan, up 14 yuan (36.8%) [8]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,600 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2,521 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.84%). The basis was 79 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 21.00%). The import profit for Canadian November shipments was 733 yuan, down 46 yuan (- 5.91%) [8]. 3.5. Sugar - Futures: On September 3, the price of the 2601 contract was 5,562 yuan, down 37 yuan (- 0.66%); the 2605 contract was 5,532 yuan, down 28 yuan (- 0.50%). The ICE raw sugar主力 was 16.05 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents (- 0.56%) [11]. - Spot: The Guigang price was 5,900 yuan, unchanged; the Kunming price was 5,850 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 368 yuan, up 28 yuan (8.24%) [11]. 3.6. Cotton - Futures: On September 3, the price of the 2605 contract was 13,950 yuan, down 45 yuan (- 0.32%); the 2601 contract was 13,990 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.39%). The ICE US cotton主力 was 66.23 cents per pound, up 0.18 cents (0.27%) [12]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,373 yuan, up 49 yuan (0.32%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,465 yuan, up 53 yuan (0.34%) [12]. 3.7. Eggs - Futures: On September 3, the price of the 11 - contract was 3,090 yuan, up 55 yuan (1.81%); the 10 - contract was 3,011 yuan, up 52 yuan (1.76%) [14]. - Spot: The egg - producing area price was 3.22 yuan per jin, up 0.01 yuan (0.28%) [14].