《特殊商品》日报-20250904

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The raw material prices are strong, overseas ship arrivals are few, and inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals remain strong with expected upward potential. The 01 contract is expected to trade between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Monitor the raw material output during the peak - production season in the main producing areas and consider shorting at high levels if raw material supply increases smoothly [1]. Logs - The recent decline in log futures prices is due to the weakening cost support from lower foreign quotes and low acceptance of delivery products in the 09 contract. However, the fundamentals are still good with low arrivals, low inventory, and stable demand. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. Consider buying the 2601 contract at low levels [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass and soda ash market has a slight rebound after a period of weakness, following the logic of fundamental oversupply. Although inventory decreased on Monday, it was just a transfer to the mid - and downstream. In the medium term, after the second - quarter PV glass installation rush, the growth of PV glass production capacity has slowed, and the float glass production capacity is flat with supply - demand pressure. Soda ash demand has no growth expectation, and inventory may face further pressure without actual capacity reduction. Track policy implementation and alkali plant load adjustments [4]. Polysilicon - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit at 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low levels and using put options to short at high levels when volatility is low [5]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are weakly volatile. The cost is expected to rise due to increasing raw material prices and higher electricity prices in the southwest during the dry season. Although production has increased, there are signs of capacity reduction. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. Consider buying at low levels, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of SCRWF in Shanghai on September 3 was 15,050 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 870 yuan/ton, down 4.02% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread on September 3 was - 952 yuan/ton, up 1.60% from the previous day. The 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20% from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's production in June was 421,600 tons, up 1.61% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - On September 3, the price of log 2511 was 798.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 12 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [3]. Supply - In July, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 1.51% from the previous month. The main port inventory in New Zealand was 470,000 cubic meters, down 11.32% [3]. Demand - As of August 29, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 62,000 cubic meters, down 4% from the previous week [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quote on August 29 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The glass 2505 contract price was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quote on August 29 was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract price was 1,357 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [4]. Supply - The soda ash production rate on August 29 was 82.47%, down 6.79% from the previous week. The weekly soda ash output was 719,000 tons, down 6.79% [4]. Inventory - As of August 29, the glass factory inventory was 62.566 million weight boxes, down 1.64% from the previous week. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.8675 million tons, down 2.26% [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock on September 3 was 51,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type polysilicon feedstock basis was - 660 yuan/ton, down 76% [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price on September 3 was 52,160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was 30 yuan/ton, up 100% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, up 6.53% from the previous week. The monthly polysilicon output was 131,700 tons, up 23.31% [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon on September 3 was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 610 yuan/ton, down 3.17% [6]. Monthly Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread on September 3 was - 8,475 yuan/ton, down 21,287.50% from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in August was 385,700 tons, up 14.01% from the previous month. The national industrial silicon production rate was 55.87%, up 6.20% [6]. Inventory Changes - As of September 3, the Xinjiang inventory was 119,100 tons, down 0.83% from the previous day. The social inventory was 541,000 tons, down 0.37% [6].