建信期货铝日报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price shows a relatively strong trend. Although it has not emerged from the off - season, the market sentiment is positive due to the impending Fed rate cut. The subsequent performance of the consumer side during the peak season should be monitored to see if it can break through the upper space [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen under the resonance of multiple factors, and the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be held [7]. - Alumina is in a weak fundamental situation, breaking through the 3000 mark and running weakly in the short - term, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, the military parade may delay the peak - season time, and the inventory is still accumulating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai aluminum price first rose and then fell. The main contract tested around 20,900 and then declined again, closing at 20,710 at the end of the session, with a slight drop of 0.02%. The 09 - 10 spread was at a discount of - 10, the import window remained closed, and the spot import loss was - 1,354 yuan/ton [7]. - In the spot market, the selling sentiment was better than the buying sentiment, the purchasing power of downstream enterprises was weak, and the inventory accumulation suppressed the premium [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated following the Shanghai aluminum price. The negative spread between AD and AL was - 415. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap - aluminum industry leading to increased costs, the cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources adjusted the transfer and registration authority of some mineral species, aiming to strengthen the protection of bauxite and other strategic mineral resources [8]. - On August 4, the Guinea government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The previous GAC mining area of 690.20 square kilometers has been granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's mine in Guinea with an annual capacity of 14 million tons stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [10]. - The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shaanzhou District Dayuantao bauxite mine was changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland. Key infrastructure construction has begun, and the project is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6% [10]. - In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].