建信期货铁矿石日评-20250904

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall price of iron ore is returning to fundamentals as the hype sentiment fades. In September, the price is expected to be under pressure in the early stage and may rebound later, showing a trend of being weak first and then strong [11]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On September 3, the main iron ore outer - market quotes increased by $1 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan per ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract shows a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The green bar of the daily MACD indicator is narrowing [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, last week's shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals in September are expected to further recover, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half [10]. - On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is slightly higher and remains above 2.4 million tons. The production and demand of the five major steel products continue to rise slightly, the steel mill inventory continues to decline slightly, and the social inventory has reached a new high since early May [10]. - Market expectations of the September 3rd production restrictions may lead to a situation of weak supply and demand for steel. Since early August, steel mill profits have generally declined by 120 - 150 yuan per ton, which may suppress raw material demand to some extent, but the impact is limited [11]. - Steel mills have resumed on - demand restocking, and port inventories have accumulated, with further accumulation expected in September [11]. 2. Industry News - As of August 30, the nine major construction central enterprises announced their new contract values in the first half of 2025, with a total new contract value of approximately 7.957727 trillion yuan [12]. - On September 2, data from ISM showed that the US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August due to a decline in output. However, the new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the price index reached its lowest level since February, indicating a reduction in price fluctuations caused by tariffs [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel markets, including prices, trading volumes, inventories, production, and capacity utilization rates, with data sources mainly from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [5][8][14][21][23][28][29][36][42][47]