大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand, with strong supply and weak demand, making it difficult to change the downward trend. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,320 - 73,440 [13][16]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors include high - level supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [14][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand - side: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,493 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,832 tons, a 1.22% increase from the previous week [8]. - Cost - side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,391 yuan/ton, a 1.23% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 592 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 79,330 yuan/ton, a 1.00% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 6,571 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Comprehensive evaluation: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis on September 3rd showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 4,020 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is positive. The overall inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, and the inventory situation is neutral. The disk shows that MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, which is neutral. The net short position of the main contract increased, which is negative [9][12][13]. 3.2 Market Overview - Price changes: The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.06% to 75,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.13% to 73,600 yuan/ton [19]. - Supply - side data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 66.41%, unchanged from the previous week. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The monthly import of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase from the previous month [22]. - Demand - side data: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase from the previous month. The monthly production of ternary materials was 73,440 tons, a 6.99% increase from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% decrease from the previous month [22]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - Lithium ore: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore fluctuated. The inventory of lithium ore held by port traders and for sale also showed certain changes over time [28]. - Lithium carbonate: The weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) showed different trends. The monthly production and import of lithium carbonate also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a deficit in some months [33][39]. - Lithium hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide changed over time. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different situations in different months [41][48]. 3.4 Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds (such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, etc.) showed different trends over time. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate was in a loss state [51]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate (including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventory) showed different trends. The overall inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average [9]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - Lithium battery: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries changed over time [62]. - Ternary precursor: The price, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors was positive in some months and negative in others [67][70]. - Ternary materials: The price, production, cost - profit, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost - profit of ternary materials fluctuated over time [73]. - Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate: The price, production, cost - profit, and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends. The production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate changed over time [77][80]. - New energy vehicles: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased slightly in some periods [85].