建信期货集运指数日报-20250904

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in the first half of September have been further reduced, putting pressure on the October contract. However, the current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and there was an oversold rebound on Tuesday, possibly boosted by the expectation of increased empty sailings during the National Day. But the scale of empty sailings this year has not significantly exceeded last year, and the overall shipping capacity has increased, so the boosting effect may not be strong. There may be low - buying opportunities for the December contract, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Situation: The SCFIS has been falling for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in September have decreased. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, and the decline exceeds market expectations, bringing pressure to the October contract. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount and had an oversold rebound on Tuesday, possibly due to the expectation of increased National Day empty sailings. However, the boosting effect may be limited [8] - Operation Suggestions: There may be low - buying opportunities for the December contract, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - Overall Market: From August 25th to 29th, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing different trends due to supply - demand fundamentals, and the composite index rose slightly [9] - European Route: In August, the euro - area economic sentiment index was lower than expected, consumer confidence and industrial indices declined. Shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and market freight rates continued to fall. On August 29th, the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate was $1481/TEU, a 11.2% decrease from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Route: The market situation was similar to the European route, with weak supply - demand fundamentals and falling spot booking prices. On August 29th, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate was $2145/TEU, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period [9] - North American Route: The US Markit manufacturing PMI in August reached the highest level since May 2022, showing strong economic performance, but there was inflation pressure. Shipping demand was stable, and market freight rates rebounded. On August 29th, the Shanghai - US West and East basic port market freight rates were $1923/FEU and $2866/FEU respectively, rising 17.0% and 9.7% from the previous period [10] - Geopolitical News: There were military conflicts in Yemen, with threats from the Houthi movement and Iran escalating. The US State Department held the PLO and Palestinian Authority responsible for undermining peace [10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices - On September 1, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1773.6, a 10.9% decrease from August 25th; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1013.9, a 2.6% decrease from August 25th [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Provided trading data for EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 3, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts - Included charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][17][21]