建信期货国债日报-20250904

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The suppression of the bond market may ease in September, but incremental positive factors remain limited. The bond market has become gradually insensitive to the stock market since late August. Considering that the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may further ease. However, there is a risk that credit - easing policies may be further intensified, and it is still difficult for monetary easing policies to be implemented. Overall, the bond market may still lack a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient and wait for better allocation value [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: The stock - bond seesaw continued. The late - session plunge in the A - share market boosted the bond market sentiment, and treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with larger declines in the medium - and long - term bonds, around 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.75%, down 1.75bp [8][9]. - Funding Market: At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the funding situation was stable. There were 3799 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 2291 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1508 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable, and most short - term funding rates fluctuated within a narrow range. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rose slightly by about 0.4bp to 1.44%, and the medium - and long - term funds remained stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate changed little around 1.6% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Domestic News: The work of using local government special bond funds to acquire and repurchase idle land has been continuously promoted, which has played an important role in stabilizing the real estate market. As of the end of August, the number of idle land parcels to be acquired with special bonds reached 4574, with a land area of over 230 million square meters, and the total amount of land to be acquired with special bonds exceeded 610 billion yuan, with actual special bond issuance of about 175.2 billion yuan. The 2025 semi - annual reports of banks were released. The asset quality of key areas such as personal loans and real estate remains a common pressure in the industry, but the overall risk is controllable, and the deterioration of relevant indicators is expected to slow down [13]. - International News: US President Trump said he would appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case. He believes that uncertainty causes the stock market to fall. If the tariffs are cancelled, the US may become a third - world country. The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor said it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates. The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly to 48.7, lower than expected, and the output index fell back into the contraction range. The eurozone's CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, and a European Central Bank official said the central bank should suspend interest rate cuts due to upward inflation risks [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 3, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - Money Market: Relevant charts show the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [29][33]. - Derivatives Market: Charts show the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35].