广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250904

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Polyester Industry: Short - term PX, PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip prices follow oil prices, with limited upward drivers. Ethylene glycol has a "strong present, weak future" pattern. Strategies vary by product, such as PX11 and TA being under observation, and attention to support levels [2]. - Fertilizer Industry: Urea futures face pressure due to weak demand and high supply. It is advisable to monitor the recovery of industrial demand in North China after the parade [5]. - Methanol Industry: Methanol supply is abundant in September, while traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices and inventory digestion [12]. - Crude Oil Industry: OPEC + supply news increases concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The oil price is likely to be weak, and a bearish strategy is recommended [15]. - Polyolefin Industry: In September, the polyolefin market shows a pattern of "decreased supply and increased demand", with controllable inventory pressure. It is suggested to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [22]. - Chlor - alkali Industry: Caustic soda prices may remain firm in the short - term, and PVC is expected to continue weak and volatile [30]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry: Short - term pure benzene and styrene prices are under pressure, but the downward space is limited if oil prices do not drop sharply. For EB10, short - term support around 6900 can be monitored [34]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - Prices and Cash Flows: On September 3, Brent crude oil (November) was at $67.60/barrel, down 2.2%. Most polyester product prices were stable or slightly decreased, and cash flows showed different changes [2]. - Supply and Demand: PX supply is expected to increase, while demand has limited upward potential. PTA supply - demand prospects have improved, but the implementation of device maintenance is not as expected. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics [2]. Fertilizer Industry - Prices and Supply - Demand: On September 3 - 5, most fertilizer product prices were stable, and urea production and inventory data showed small fluctuations. Urea demand is weak, and supply is relatively sufficient [5]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Inventory: On September 3, MA2601 closed at 2382 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [12]. - Supply and Demand: In September, methanol supply is high, and traditional downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the restart of port MTO devices [12]. Crude Oil Industry - Prices and Spreads: On September 4, Brent was at $67.39/barrel, down 0.31%. Most oil - related prices and spreads changed slightly, and the crack spread of refined oil increased slightly [15]. - Supply and Demand: OPEC + supply news intensifies concerns about a supply surplus in the fourth quarter, and the oil price is likely to be weak [15]. Polyolefin Industry - Prices and Inventory: On September 3, L2601 closed at 7247 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. PE and PP enterprise and social inventories increased [22]. - Supply and Demand: In September, PE supply pressure is limited, and PP shows a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing". Downstream demand has increased slightly [22]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Prices and Inventory: On September 3, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was stable, and the price of PVC was also stable. Chlor - alkali inventories showed different changes [30]. - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda supply will gradually recover, and demand may increase. PVC supply is expected to increase, while demand remains weak [30]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Prices and Inventory: On September 3, CFR China pure benzene was at $734/ton, up 0.8%. Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [34]. - Supply and Demand: Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, and demand support is weakening. Styrene supply is high in the short - term, but there are expectations of improvement in supply - demand later [34].