Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Copper - Macro: Fed's dovish stance boosts copper prices, but concerns about "stagflation" limit upside. Future price depends on smoothness of rate - cut expectations and impact of tariff - induced inflation. - Fundamentals: "Weak reality + stable expectations". Weak reality is due to potential decline in copper demand in H2, but limited supply elasticity restricts supply - demand deterioration. Stable expectations come from improved rate - cut expectations and domestic stimulus policies. Copper prices will at least oscillate without a clear US recession, and an upward cycle needs the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: Market shows "high supply, high inventory, low demand". Supply is affected by rainy - season bauxite imports and new capacity, while demand from electrolytic aluminum is limited. Current prices are near the cost zone, with limited downside. The reference range for the main contract is 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Macro expectations and fundamental improvements resonate. Supply is at a high level, demand is marginally improving, and inventory is low. However, high prices suppress downstream purchases. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and may fall if demand does not improve [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Fed's rate - cut expectations boost the commodity atmosphere. Supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some plants have reduced production due to tax policy adjustments. Demand is still weak but shows signs of improvement. If imports are limited, the price will remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum may narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - Supply: Overseas mines are in an up - cycle, and high TC encourages smelters. August refined zinc output exceeded expectations. - Demand: Entering the peak season, spot trading has improved. The decline in the three primary processing industries' operating rates is limited. - Outlook: Supply is expected to be loose, providing limited upward impetus. Low and declining inventory provides support. Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, and imports decreased in July. Although Myanmar's production is expected to resume in Q4, it may be delayed. - Demand: Demand from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors is weak. - Outlook: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are oscillating at a high level. If supply recovers smoothly, short - selling is recommended; otherwise, prices will continue to oscillate between 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - Macro: US rate - cut expectations and positive domestic policies. - Industry: Nickel prices fell, and spot trading was okay. Nickel ore prices are firm, and nickel - iron prices are strong. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and short - term supply - demand mismatch in nickel sulfate has pushed up prices. - Outlook: Cost provides support, and supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. Prices are expected to adjust within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - Macro: Fed's rate - cut expectations and positive domestic policies ease export pressure and boost demand expectations. - Industry: Ore prices are firm, nickel - iron prices have increased, and chromium - iron supply has news disturbances. Supply pressure may increase, but terminal demand is still weak. - Outlook: Raw material prices support costs, and the market is cautiously optimistic. Prices are expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: Prices continue to decline, with support around 72,000 yuan/ton. - Fundamentals: Supply contraction is gradually realized, with some reduction in production and imports. Demand is robust, but actual demand growth needs further tracking due to inventory pressure in the material industry. - Outlook: After a decline in the price center, it will oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 0.45% to 80,520 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. - Import loss was - 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 369.24 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 0.10% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - Alumina prices in different regions decreased slightly [2]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM ADC12 prices remained stable at 20,750 yuan/ton. - The scrap - refined price difference in different regions increased [3]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose 0.41% to 22,240 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - Import loss was - 2479 yuan/ton, a decrease of 212.63 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price fell 0.15% to 273,100 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 200 yuan/ton. - Import loss was - 20,238.59 yuan/ton, a 0.70% decrease [8]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price fell 1.29% to 122,450 yuan/ton. - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte decreased [10]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi and Foshan) prices fell 0.38% to 13,150 yuan/ton. - The spot - futures price difference decreased by 5 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price fell 2.06% to 75,900 yuan/ton. - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased [13]. Month - to - Month Spreads - Copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel, stainless steel, and lithium carbonate all have corresponding month - to - month spread data, with different changes in each case [1][2][3][6][8][10][12][13]. Fundamental Data Copper - August electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a 0.24% decrease. - July import volume was 29.69 million tons, a 1.20% decrease [1]. Aluminum - August alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a 1.15% increase. - August electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a 0.30% increase [2]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, a 1.63% increase. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.60 million tons, a 4.31% increase [3]. Zinc - August refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a 3.88% increase. - July import volume was 1.79 million tons, a 50.35% decrease [6]. Tin - July tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a 13.71% decrease. - July refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a 15.42% increase [8]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, a 1.26% increase. - July import volume was 17,536 tons, an 8.46% decrease [10]. Stainless Steel - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, a 3.83% decrease. - July import volume was 7.30 million tons, a 33.30% decrease [12]. Lithium Carbonate - August lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase. - July import volume was 13,845 tons, a 21.77% decrease [13].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250904
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-04 05:51