广发期货日评-20250904

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In September 2025, the direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares may enter a high - level shock pattern after a large increase, and the current volatility has risen [2]. - The short - term trend of various futures products varies. For example, gold is expected to rise above $3600 but shows an overbought phenomenon, while some products like steel are in a weak decline [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM's main contracts are - 0.67%, - 0.41%, - 1.16%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for the next direction [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.8%. Use range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [2]. - Precious Metal Futures: Gold is expected to rise above $3600, but be cautious about chasing long positions. Silver long positions can be held or use unilateral call options to go long [2]. - Shipping Index Futures: The EC main contract rebounds and fluctuates. Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [2]. Black Futures - Steel Futures: The apparent demand for rebar declines, and the steel price maintains a weak downward trend. It is recommended to go long on the ratio of steel to ore [2]. - Iron Ore Futures: The shipment rises to a high level, and the price fluctuates with steel. The range is 750 - 810. Go long on iron ore and short on coke [2]. - Coking Coal Futures: The spot price fluctuates weakly. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal for arbitrage [2]. - Coke Futures: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants is implemented, and the eighth round is blocked. Unilateral short positions can be held, and go long on iron ore and short on coke for arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Futures - Copper Futures: The center of the copper price rises. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - Aluminum Futures: The aluminum price shows different trends. Pay attention to the demand in the peak season and the pressure level of 21000 [2]. - Zinc Futures: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory accumulates. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [2]. - Nickel Futures: The dollar strengthens, and the nickel price fluctuates and falls. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2]. - Stainless Steel Futures: The price weakens slightly, with a game between cost support and weak demand. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude Oil Futures: The expected marginal supply increase pressures the oil price. Adopt a unilateral short - bias approach [2]. - Urea Futures: High supply pressure and lower Indian bids make the short - term market likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - PX Futures: The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September, with limited short - term drivers. Wait and see and pay attention to the support at 6600 and the oil price [2]. - PTA Futures: There is little supply - demand contradiction in September, with limited drivers. Wait and see, pay attention to the support at 4600 and the oil price, and mainly do a rolling reverse spread for TA1 - 5 [2]. - Other Chemical Futures: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and corresponding trading strategies, such as short - term shock, range - bound operations, etc. [2] Agricultural Futures - Livestock Futures: The supply - demand contradiction of live pigs is limited. Pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm. The 11 - contract pays attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - Grain Futures: Corn spot is stable, and the futures price fluctuates and adjusts. Short on rallies [2]. - Oil Futures: Palm oil maintains a strong shock consolidation and may冲击 $9500 in the short term [2]. - Other Agricultural Futures: Each agricultural product has different supply - demand and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions such as short - position closing, waiting and seeing, etc. [2] Special Commodity Futures - Glass Futures: The futures and spot inventories are at a high level, and the industry has a negative feedback. Hold short positions [2]. - Rubber Futures: The fundamentals are strong, and the rubber price fluctuates at a high level. Short on rallies if the raw material supply is smooth [2]. - Industrial Silicon Futures: The spot price rises slightly, and the futures price fluctuates. The main price range is 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Futures - Polysilicon Futures: The spot price rises, and the polysilicon price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [2]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The situation has not improved, and the price is weak. Wait and see [2]. Tin Futures - The supply remains tight, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Wait and see [3]