集运早报-20250904

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation in September is stable, and the driving force will continue to be positive for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on shipping companies' suspension of voyages. In terms of valuation, the price in October is close to the annual low (1250 - 1300), with limited downside. The December contract will decline in the short - term following the driving force, but considering the peak season and long - term agreement negotiation season, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying at low prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Contract Information - Contract Prices and Changes: For futures contracts such as FC2510, EC2512, EC2602, etc., prices showed different degrees of change. For example, FC2510 had a - 1.32% change, and EC2512 had a - 1.86% change. The price differences between different contracts also changed, like the EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 378.2, with a 14.6 day - on - day change and a - 92.2 week - on - week change [1]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied. For instance, the trading volume of EC2510 was 51946, and the open interest was 25510 [1]. Spot Index Information - Index Changes: Indicators such as SCHIS, SCFI, CCFI, and NCFI all showed declines. SCHIS decreased by - 100.00% compared to the previous period, and SCFI dropped by - 11.21% [1]. Shipping Capacity Information - Original Shipping Capacity: In September and October, the weekly average shipping capacity was 29.6 and 30.9 million TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, it was 29.6 and 28.1 million TEU respectively. After the September 4th update, due to the suspension of voyages during the National Day holiday, the shipping capacity in week 40 and 41 decreased to 31 and 23.7 million TEU respectively, and the weekly average in October was 28.9 million TEU. After considering all TBN as suspended voyages, the shipping capacity in September and October was 29.6 and 26 million TEU respectively [1][2]. Price Quotation Information - Recent Quotations: Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - September (week 37 - 38). In week 36, the shipping company's quotation was between 2120 - 2420, with an average of 2250 US dollars (1550 points). In week 37, the average quotation was 2100 US dollars (1450 points), and in week 38, it was 2000 US dollars (1370 points). On Wednesday, YML quoted 1800 US dollars for the second half of September and the first half of October [3]. News Information - Military News: On September 2, the Israeli military stated that its military operations in Gaza City had advanced to new areas. On September 4, Hamas reiterated its willingness to reach a comprehensive agreement in Gaza and release all Israeli hostages [4].