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有色套利早报-20250904
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-04 07:06

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 4, 2025 [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: On September 4, 2025, the domestic spot price was 80,500, the LME price was 9,904, and the ratio was 8.07; the domestic three - month price was 80,060, the LME price was 9,971, and the ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a profit of - 62.04, and the profit for spot export was - 72.03 [1]. - Zinc: The domestic spot price was 22,230, the LME price was 2,887, and the ratio was 7.70; the domestic three - month price was 22,285, the LME price was 2,868, and the ratio was 5.89. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.60, with a profit of - 2,592.13 [1]. - Aluminum: The domestic spot price was 20,730, the LME price was 2,618, and the ratio was 7.92; the domestic three - month price was 20,700, the LME price was 2,614, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.42, with a profit of - 1,307.59 [1]. - Nickel: The domestic spot price was 120,450, the LME price was 15,073, and the ratio was 7.99. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.21, with a profit of - 1,650.13 [1]. - Lead: The domestic spot price was 16,725, the LME price was 1,950, and the ratio was 8.59; the domestic three - month price was 16,875, the LME price was 1,993, and the ratio was 11.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.85, with a profit of - 514.96 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: On September 4, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 430, 380, 330, and 320 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 500, 899, 1306, and 1714 [4]. - Zinc: The spreads were 5, 5, 15, and 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 [4]. - Aluminum: The spreads were - 30, - 40, - 50, and - 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 562 [4]. - Lead: The spreads were 65, 75, 90, and 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - Nickel: The spreads were - 430, - 320, - 90, and 50 respectively [4]. - Tin: The 5 - 1 spread was 660, and the theoretical spread was 5655 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 755 and - 325 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 126 and 634 [4]. - Zinc: The spreads were 50 and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 125 and 255 [4]. - Lead: The spreads were 75 and 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 128 and 240 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 4, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.59, 3.87, 4.74, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 respectively; for LME (three - continuous), they were 3.49, 3.81, 5.00, 0.92, 1.31, and 0.70 respectively [5].