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原油成品油早报-20250904
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-09-04 08:31

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with absolute prices dropping on Friday. The peak season for refinery operations in summer is coming to an end, and the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while the spread of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. Refinery profits in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the European diesel crack spread fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories are slightly increasing, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are seasonally decreasing, with absolute inventories at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories are decreasing, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are decreasing. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil spread is expected to be under pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the switch between peak and off - peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will drop to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the European diesel crack spread price expectation for the fourth quarter is raised [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day News - The API crude oil inventory in the U.S. for the week ending August 29 was 622,000 barrels, with an expected value of - 3.4 million barrels and a previous value of - 974,000 barrels [3]. - U.S. President Trump hinted at implementing the second and third phases of oil sanctions against Russia [4]. - Two sources said that OPEC+ will consider further increasing oil production at a meeting on Sunday as the organization seeks to regain market share. Another increase in production would mean that OPEC+ will start to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. However, some analysts and OPEC+ sources said that OPEC+ may also suspend the production increase, and the final decision has not been made [5]. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending August 15, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%; the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [5][6]. - The EIA gasoline inventory in the U.S. for the week ending August 15 was - 2.72 million barrels, with an expected value of - 915,000 barrels and a previous value of - 792,000 barrels; the EIA refined oil inventory was 2.343 million barrels, with an expected value of 928,000 barrels and a previous value of 714,000 barrels [6]. - From August 22 to 29, the operating rate of major refineries increased slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated weakly, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [6]. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price dropped on Friday. The inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged at the end of the peak season for refinery operations in summer. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, the spread of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly, the refinery profits in Europe and the United States declined slightly, the U.S. gasoline crack spread strengthened, and the European diesel crack spread fluctuated [7]. - The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories are slightly increasing, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories are seasonally decreasing, with absolute inventories at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories are decreasing, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories are decreasing [7]. - Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil spread is expected to be under pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the switch between peak and off - peak seasons. The market is concerned about the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price is under downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will drop to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the European diesel crack spread price expectation for the fourth quarter is raised [7].