芳烃橡胶早报-20250905

Group 1: PTA - The investment rating of the PTA industry is not mentioned in the report [1][3][4] - The core view is that after the near - end TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased month - on - month, polyester load remained stable, inventory decreased significantly, basis weakened month - on - month, and spot processing fees weakened. The subsequent TA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [4] - Key points from the table: From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the price of PTA spot decreased by 85, the polyester profit increased by 67, and the effective forecast of warehouse receipts decreased by 204. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions was 2601(-57). The 1.5 - million - ton PTA device of Taihua was restarted, and a 1.2 - million - ton device was planned for maintenance [3] Group 2: MEG - The investment rating of the MEG industry is not mentioned in the report [10] - The core view is that the near - end domestic oil - based production increased its load, the coal - based start - up decreased slightly, the overall load increased, overseas unexpected maintenance increased, port inventory continued to decrease, and the basis strengthened month - on - month. In the short term, EG port inventory is expected to continue to decrease, but the far - month is expected to accumulate inventory. The valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [10] - Key points from the table: From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the MEG coal - based profit increased by 16, and the basis of MEG spot transactions was around 01(+106). The 600,000 - ton MEG device of Xinjiang Tianye was under maintenance [10] Group 3: Polyester Staple Fiber - The investment rating of the polyester staple fiber industry is not mentioned in the report [10] - The core view is that the start - up rate of polyester staple fiber increased slightly, production and sales weakened month - on - month, and inventory remained stable. The demand side of polyester yarn has weak benefits. After the finished product inventory of polyester yarn accumulates, the rate of increasing the load may slow down. The start - up rate of staple fiber is expected to remain high, and the processing fee should be regarded as an oscillatory trend [10] - Key points from the table: From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the profit of 1.4D cotton - type polyester staple fiber increased by 35, and the spot price was around 6445, with the market basis around 10 - 30 [10] Group 4: Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - The investment rating of the natural rubber and 20 - number rubber industry is not mentioned in the report [10] - The core view is that the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable and the absolute level is not high, and the price of Thai cup rubber remains stable while rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [10] - Key points from the table: From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber increased by 1, the price of Yunnan glue decreased by 100, and the price of Hainan glue decreased by 300. The weekly change of RU09 - RU01 was 60, and the weekly change of the Shanghai Futures Exchange RU warehouse receipts was - 12320 [10] Group 5: Styrene - The investment rating of the styrene industry is not mentioned in the report [13] - The report does not provide a clear core view on styrene, only presenting price data [13] - Key points from the table: From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 30, the price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong decreased by 70, and the price of styrene in Jiangsu decreased by 25. The domestic profit of EPS increased by 50 [13]