Workflow
铁矿石早报（2025-9-5）-20250905
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-05 01:44
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The iron ore market presents a neutral situation in terms of fundamentals, a bullish situation in terms of basis and price trend on the disk, and a bearish situation in terms of the main positions. The market is also affected by both positive and negative factors [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Steel mills' molten iron production has started to decrease, and the arrival volume this month has decreased. The overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there are plans for crude steel production reduction and trade - war easing, showing a neutral situation [2]. - Basis: The spot - equivalent prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend in Rizhao Port have positive basis, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory is 14388.02 tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. - Main Positions: The main positions of iron ore are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: With reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Positive Factors - Molten iron production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory has decreased [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products has risen, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Negative Factors - The later shipping volume will increase [6]. - The terminal demand remains weak [6].