Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Nino weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. It is rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,428, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [2]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. It is rated as bearish [2]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [2]. - Main Position: The long position of the main soybean oil contract has increased. It is rated as bullish [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,550 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil is expected to increase in the future. It is rated as neutral [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 10, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [3]. - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is rated as bullish [3]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [3]. - Main Position: The long position of the main palm oil contract has turned to short. It is rated as bearish [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil is expected to increase in the future. It is rated as neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,858, with a basis of 119, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [4]. - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is rated as bearish [4]. - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [4]. - Main Position: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract has increased. It is rated as bearish [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - 利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].
大越期货油脂早报-20250905
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-09-05 01:44