焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-5）-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Although coking enterprises' profit is good and production will increase after the parade, the steel market is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious [3]. - For coke, the short - term price is also expected to remain stable. With the end of the parade and relaxed environmental policies, coke supply will increase, but downstream demand is cautious due to weak steel prices [8]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Some mines in major producing areas have resumed production, increasing output. Market sentiment has weakened, with less new orders and inventory piling up. However, coking enterprises' profit is good, and production will gradually increase after the parade. The steel market is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious [3]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1170, and the basis is - 75.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week, which is positive [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, which is negative [4]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [4]. - Expectation: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [3]. - Positive Factors: Rising pig iron output and limited supply increase [6]. - Negative Factors: Slowed procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. Coke - Fundamentals: The price of coking coal has weakened, reducing the cost of coking enterprises. After the parade, environmental policies have relaxed, and coke supply is expected to increase [8]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1570, and the basis is - 11.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week, which is positive [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, which is negative [8]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [8]. - Expectation: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [8]. - Positive Factors: Rising pig iron output and increasing blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit space of steel mills and over - drawn replenishment demand [10]. Price - Imported Coking Coal: On September 4, 2025, at 17:30, the prices and price changes of various imported coking coals at different ports are provided [11]. - Port Metallurgical Coke: On September 4, 2025, at 17:30, the prices and price changes of port metallurgical coke are provided [12]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [22]. - Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [27]. - Steel Mills' Inventory: Coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [32]. Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [45]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [49].