建信期货多晶硅日报-20250905

Report Date - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market continues to show high - level fluctuations. The price of the main contract of polysilicon remains high, and the spot price also rises. However, the terminal demand decline pressure will gradually spread to the upstream of the industrial chain, and the market needs more confirmed policies to break through the high - level resistance [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook Market Performance - The price of the main polysilicon contract PS2511 closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The trading volume was 268,080 lots, and the open interest was 145,950 lots, with a net decrease of 3,260 lots [4] Future Outlook - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock is 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 49,000 yuan/ton, up 2.30% week - on - week. In September, due to the production limit and sales control policy, the monthly production is expected to be flat compared with the previous month, down from the previous expectation of 145,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.8GW, higher than the expected battery production. The terminal demand decline pressure will gradually spread to the upstream of the industrial chain, and the spot price increase has led the industry out of the loss - making situation. The market is mainly in high - level fluctuations and needs more confirmed policies to break through the resistance [4] 2. Market News - On September 3, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6GW, and the newly - added installed capacity was 223.25GW. In July, the newly - added installed capacity was 11GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]